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Over at National Review, David French has a chilling article about politicized ‘John Doe’ investigations and police raids directed against persons and organizations who are suspected of challenging union power and/or supporting Scott Walker.

Here is an excerpt:

[After the early morning police raid came] the warnings. Don’t call your lawyer. Don’t talk to anyone about this. Don’t tell your friends. The kids watched — alarmed — as the school bus drove by, with the students inside watching the spectacle of uniformed police surrounding the house, carrying out the family’s belongings. Yet they were told they couldn’t tell anyone at school. They, too, had to remain silent. The mom watched as her entire life was laid open before the police. Her professional files, her personal files, everything. She knew this was all politics. She knew a rogue prosecutor was targeting her for her political beliefs. And she realized, “Every aspect of my life is in their hands. And they hate me.”

For dozens of conservatives, the years since Scott Walker’s first election as governor of Wisconsin transformed the state — known for pro-football championships, good cheese, and a population with a reputation for being unfailingly polite — into a place where conservatives have faced early-morning raids, multi-year secretive criminal investigations, slanderous and selective leaks to sympathetic media, and intrusive electronic snooping.

Yes, Wisconsin, the cradle of the progressive movement and home of the “Wisconsin idea” — the marriage of state governments and state universities to govern through technocratic reform — was giving birth to a new progressive idea, the use of law enforcement as a political instrument, as a weapon to attempt to undo election results, shame opponents, and ruin lives.

Read the whole thing.

Eric O’Keefe related his experience in this matter at a Cato event a few months ago.  And Cato has filed an amicus brief is support of O’Keefe’s petition to the Supreme Court to hear his case and to rein in Wisconsin’s politicized “investigations.”

As scandals continue to swirl around Hillary Clinton, former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley is positioning himself for a run for the Democratic nomination. He is relatively young, telegenic, and well-spoken. However, O’Malley has a record that includes tax hikes so large that they turned off even Democratic-dominated Maryland.  

As I discuss in the Daily Caller today, O’Malley:

  • Raised the top personal income tax rate from 4.75 to 5.75 percent. With local taxes on top, Maryland’s top rate is 8.95 percent.
  • Raised the corporate tax rate from 7.0 to 8.25 percent.
  • Raised the sales tax rate from 5 to 6 percent and expanded the sales tax base.
  • Raised the sales tax rate on beer, wine, and spirits by 50 percent.
  • Raised the gas tax by 20 cents over four years, almost doubling the rate from 23.5 cents.
  • Doubled the cigarette tax from $1 to $2 per pack.
  • Imposed higher taxes on vehicle registration.
  • Imposed a stormwater mitigation fee on property owners, or a “rain tax.”

O’Malley raised taxes on everybody, and by 2014 Marylanders had finally had enough. In the gubernatorial election, Republican Larry Hogan pulled off a stunning upset over Democrat Anthony Brown based on his promise to roll back some of O’Malley’s tax increases.

The choice then for Democrats is whether unpopular tax increases are the type of “hope and change” they want to run on in 2016.

Just when you thought the long-running “John Doe” prosecution/persecutions in Wisconsin couldn’t get any worse—SWAT teams conducting pre-dawn raids on family homes, gag orders on the victims, and the prosecutor’s recusal motion directed against no fewer than four state supreme court justices, all over politically driven campaign finance allegations—Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm suggested over the weekend that Gov. Scott Walker could be criminally charged for lying. Walker’s “crime”? In Iowa on Saturday, he questioned whether the prosecution’s tactics were constitutional.

As so often happens in litigation over often inscrutable campaign finance law, this case is a tangle of legal complexities, many of which are outlined in Cato’s amicus brief, urging the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the appeal of the “John Does,” their lives on hold as they suffer in silence. At its conference last Friday, the Court considered their cert petition, but it was not included in the Court’s list of denials this morning, indicating a “hold” and hence an increased likelihood that the Court will hear the appeal.

Only two weeks ago, in her first campaign stop in Iowa, Hillary Clinton took a shot at the Roberts Court, calling for a constitutional amendment to overturn the Court’s Citizens United decision. That would amount to nothing less than an assault on the First Amendment’s protection of political speech. With that speech so threatened, no better illustrated than in the appalling Wisconsin prosecutions, it’s time for the Court to bring an end to this tyranny.

Alzheimer’s robbed Ronald Reagan of his memory. Now Republican neocons are trying to steal his foreign policy legacy. Reagan likely would have been appalled by the aggressive posturing of most of the Republicans currently seeking the White House.

Ronald Reagan’s mantra was “peace through strength.” Peace was the end, strength the means. He focused on the Soviet Union and its advanced outposts, especially in the Western Hemisphere.

Restraining the hegemonic threat posed by an aggressive, ideological Soviet Union led to Reagan’s tough policy. Still, Reagan avoided military confrontation with Moscow. Indeed, he routinely employed what neocons today deride as “appeasement.”

For instance, Reagan dropped the Carter grain embargo against Moscow. Reagan said he desired to encourage “meaningful and constructive dialogue.”

Lech Walesa and the Solidarity movement were a global inspiration but the Polish military, fearing Soviet intervention, imposed martial law in 1981. No American bombers flew, no invasion threatened, no soldiers marched. Reagan waited for the Evil Empire to further deteriorate from within.

However, Reagan wanted to negotiate—from a position of strength, but he still wanted to negotiate.

Moreover, as my late White House boss, Martin Anderson, and his wife, Annelise, documented, Reagan was horrified by the prospect of nuclear war, which drove him to propose creation of missile defense and abolition of nuclear weapons.

In their book on foreign policy analysts Stefan Halper and Jonathan Clarke observed: “from 1983 onward, Reagan devoted more of his foreign policy time to arms control than to any other subject.” Norman Podhoretz, the neocon godfather, denounced Reagan for “appeasement by any other name.”

Reagan was willing to switch rhetoric and policy when circumstances changed. He recognized that Mikhail Gorbachev was different from previous Soviet leaders. Gorbachev later wrote that Reagan “was looking for negotiations and cooperation.” Or, in a word, appeasement.

Of course, Reagan was not a pacifist. But he was cautious in using the military. He usually intervened through proxies to counter Soviet or allied Communist influence—an agenda which disappeared along with the Cold War.

Reagan used the military in combat only three times. The first instance was Grenada, after murderous Communists ousted their slightly less hardline colleagues. Reagan defenestrated the new regime, simultaneously protecting American medical students and eliminating a nearby Soviet outpost. When the job was done Reagan brought home the U.S. forces.

The second case was against Libya in response to evidence that Tripoli had staged the bombing of Berlin nightclub favored by Americans. There was no regime change and nation-building.

The third, and sadly disastrous, intervention was Lebanon. The U.S. had few measurable interests at stake in that tragic nation’s civil war, but Reagan sought to strengthen the nominal national government. Washington trained the Lebanese military and took an active role in the fighting. U.S. intervention triggered attacks on both the U.S. embassy and Marine Corps barracks.

Reagan recognized that he’d erred. He “redeployed” existing troops to naval vessels which then sailed home. Because he had the courage to back down thousands of Americans did not die fighting in another meaningless Mideast war.

Yet neoconservatives denounced him for refusing to occupy Lebanon. Podhoretz charged Reagan with “having cut and run.” President George W. Bush argued that Reagan’s withdrawal was one reason terrorists “concluded that we lacked the courage and character to defend ourselves.”

Lebanon was a terrible mistake, but Reagan learned from his errors. More important, he was no global social engineer.

No one knows what Reagan would think today. But he likely would be angry at use of his legacy to justify a failed foreign policy.

As I point out in National Interest online:  “When Ronald Reagan left office the U.S. truly stood tall. George W. Bush more than any of Reagan’s other successors squandered the Reagan legacy with a recklessly aggressive policy that ran counter to Ronald Reagan’s far more nuanced approach in a far more difficult time. Similarly, most of today’s leading Republicans, in contrast to Reagan, appear to want strength but not peace.”

John Adams left his state a conflicted legacy. As a young man in 1765, Adams took to the Boston Gazette to protest censorship, reminding his readers that “liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people,” and for that reason “none of the means of information are more sacred, or have been cherished with more tenderness and care by the settlers of America, than the press. Care has been taken that the art of printing should be encouraged, and that it should be easy and cheap and safe for any person to communicate his thoughts to the public.” Fifteen years later, Adams was called upon to write a constitution for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, which provided that as “[t]he liberty of the press is essential to the security of freedom in a State; it ought not, therefore, to be restrained in this commonwealth.”

Wise words from a wise man. But two decades hence later, Adams was no longer a young man, and no longer so wise.

In 1798, Adams was an embattled and unpopular president, under constant fire from the nation’s papers. In response, he pushed through a law that made it a crime to “write, print, utter or publish … any false, scandalous and malicious writing or writings against the government of the United States.”

Reviled as an unconstitutional affront to liberty, the Sedition Act was so unpopular that it cost Adams a second term, and has served for over 200 years as a symbol of tyrannical overreach. Adams also gave his name to the courthouse where the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts meets; that Court will now have to decide which version of Adam’s legacy it will embrace.

For almost 100 years, Massachusetts has had its own version of the Sedition Act, a law making it crime to publish “any false statement in relation to any candidate for nomination or election to public office, which is designed or tends to aid or to injure or defeat such candidate.” Cato has filed a brief pointing out just how absurd and unconstitutional this law is.

No, not that brief, but if the law sounds familiar it should: Ohio had a similar law—until a trip up from the federal district court to the U.S. Supreme Court and back resulted it in being struck down. Statutes in Minnesota and Washington have suffered the same fate. These laws are a direct and indefensible attack on the freedoms protected by the First Amendment, and because John Adams was right when he described censorship as the “jaws of power … always opened to devour, if possible, to destroy the freedom of thinking, speaking, and writing,” it’s time for Massachusetts to follow suit.

As a more modern president from the Commonwealth once said, the government cannot be “afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”

The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court hears argument in Commonwealth v. Lucas on May 7.

Did the Fed’s set its policy interest rate below the market-clearing or ‘natural’ interest rate level in the early-to-mid 2000s? Or did it simply lower its policy interest rate down to a depressed natural interest rate level during this time? The answers to these questions determine whether U.S. monetary policy was loose during the housing boom.

John Taylor believes the Fed pushed interest rates below their natural interest rate level. He views this departure from a neutral stance as a key contributor to the housing boom. Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers believe otherwise. They see the Fed simply doing its job back then by adjusting its policy rate down to a low natural interest rate level. Bernanke believes the natural interest rate level was low because of a saving glut while Summers holds that its was depressed because of secular stagnation. Either way, both individuals do not blame the Fed for any role the low interest rates played in fostering the housing boom. The Fed’s lowering of interest rates was simply an endogenous response.

George Selgin, Berrak Bahadir, and I recently published an article that lends support to John Taylor’s view of Fed policy during this time. It received some pushback from Scott Sumner who is sympathetic to both the saving glut and secular stagnation views. At the same time, Tony Yates provided a critique of John Taylor’s argument on the financial crisis that was heartily endorsed by Paul Krugman. So the debate over the Fed policy during this period continues.

What I want to do here is to step back from this debate and review what I see as the key economic developments that affected U.S. interest rates at this time. Then, given these considerations, I will jump back into the debate and ask whether Fed policy pushed interest rates in the same direction as that implied by these developments.

The key developments as I see them are threefold: a falling term premiums, a spate of large positive supply shocks, and the emergence of a monetary superpower. Let us consider each one in turn.

I. Falling Term Premiums on Long-Term Treasuries

The term premium is the extra compensations investors require for the risk of holding a long-term treasury bond versus a sequence of short-term treasury bills over the same period. The term premium had been declining since the early 1980s and therefore put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. This development can be seen in the figure below which is created using the Adrian, Crump, and Moench (2013) data. (For more on this data see here.)

The decline has been attributed to several factors. First, there was a decline in inflation volatility and an overall improvement in macroeconomic stability during this time that made investors less risk averse to holding long-term bonds. They therefore demanded less compensation. Second, regulatory and accounting changes for certain firms increased their demand for treasury securities relative to their supply. This further reduced the term premium. Third, globalization was taking off, but without a concurrent deepening of financial markets in many of the affected countries. That meant that global income was growing faster than the world’s ability to produce safe assets. Consequently, many developing countries started turning to the United States for safe assets. This further depressed the term premium and is the basis for Bernanke’s saving glut theory.

A close look at the above figure shows this term premium decline intensified in 2003, falling about 1.4 percentage points over the next two years. This happened right during the time the Fed pushed its policy rate to record-low levels. This, then, appears to support the endogenous view of the low policy rates argued by Bernanke and Summers.

However, this conclusion needs to be tempered. For the next two developments discussed below suggest that a sizable portion of the declining term premium at this time may have been an endogenous response to the Fed’s low interest rates policy during that time.

II. A Spate of Large Positive Supply Shocks

The second important development is that the global economy got buffeted with a series of large positive supply shocks from the opening up of Asia–especially China and India–and the rapid technology innovations that reached a crescendo in the early-to-mid 2000s. Global growth accelerated because of these developments as seen in the figure below:

The opening up of Asia significantly increased the world’s labor supply while the technology gains increased productivity growth. The uptick in productivity growth, which peaked between 2002 and 2004, was widely discussed in the early 2000s and raised long-run expected productivity growth at the time. This can be seen in the figure below which shows a consensus forecast of annual average productivity growth over a ten year horizon:

Note that the rise in the labor force and productivity growth rates both raised the expected return to capital. The faster productivity growth also implied higher expected household incomes. These developments, in turn, should have lead to less saving and more borrowing by firms and households and put upward pressure on the natural interest rate. Interest rates, in short, should have been rising given these large positive supply shocks during this time.

III. Emergence of a Muscle-Flexing Monetary Superpower

The third development is that in the decade leading up to the financial crisis that the Fed became a monetary superpower that could flex its muscles. It controlled the world’s main reserve currency and many emerging markets were formally or informally pegged to dollar. Thus, its monetary policy got exported across much of the globe, a point acknowledged by Fed chair Janet Yellen. This meant that the other two monetary powers, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, were mindful of U.S. monetary policy lest their currencies became too expensive relative to the dollar and all the other currencies pegged to the dollar. As as result, the Fed’s monetary policy got exported to some degree to Japan and the Euro area as well. Chris Crowe and I provide formal evidence for this view here as does Colin Gray here.

Now let’s tie all these points together and see what it says about the Fed’s role in the housing boom. Let’s begin by noting that when the large positive supply shocks buffeted the global economy they created disinflationary pressures that bothered Fed officials. They did not like the falling inflation. So Fed officials responded by easing monetary policy. Recall, though, that the supply shocks were raising the return to capital and expected income growth and therefore putting upward pressure on the natural interest rate. The Fed, consequently, was pushing down its policy rate at the very time the natural interest rate was rising. Monetary policy was inadvertently being loosened.

This error was compounded by the fact that the Fed was a monetary superpower. The Fed’s easing in the early-to-mid 2000s meant the dollar-pegging countries were forced to buy more dollars. These economies then used the dollars to buy up U.S. treasuries and GSE securities. This increased the demand for safe assets and ostensibly reinforced the push to transform risky private assets into AAA assets. To the extent the ECB and the Bank of Japan also responded to U.S. monetary policy, they too were acquiring foreign reserves and channeling credit back to the U.S. economy. Thus, the easier U.S. monetary policy became the greater the demand for safe assets and the greater the amount of recycled credit coming back to the U.S. economy. The 2003-2005 decline in the term premium, in other words, was to some extent an endogenous response to the easing of Fed policy during this time.

The figure below highlights this relationship for the period 1997-2006. It comes from my work with Chris Crowe and shows that almost 50% of the foreign reserve buildup was tied to deviations of the federal funds rate from the Taylor Rule. Colin Gray estimates several regression models on this relationship and finds that for every 1% point deviation of the federal funds rate below the Taylor Rule, foreign reserves grew by $11.5 billion. The Fed, therefore, was putting downward pressure on interest rates not only directly via the setting of its federal funds rate target, but also by raising the amount of credit channeled into the long-term U.S. securities.

Given these points, I think it is reasonable to conclude the Fed contributed to the housing boom. I hope they give Scott, Tony, and Paul something to think about.

Let me be clear about my views. Even though the Fed kept its policy rate below the natural rate for a good part of the housing boom period, the opposite happened after the crash due to the ZLB. This is a point Ramesh Ponnuru and I made in a recent National Review article. So unlike some observers who see the Fed as being eternally loose, I take a different view: the Fed was too loose during the boom and too tight during the bust.

Update: There are multiple measures of the output gap that show the U.S. economy overheating during this time. Below is a figure from this article that compares the real-time and final measures of the U.S. output gap. Everyone shows ex-post an overheating economy during the housing boom:

[Cross posted from Macro and Other Market Musings]

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  ere we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Since the Earth Day coverage this year seemed rather meager—a sign, perhaps, that everyone is growing tired of the pessimistic drone that defines the current environmental movement—it is possible that you may have overlooked a few stories out there that shine a more positive light on the human condition and the way forward.

You ought to take a few minutes and take Alex Epstein’s short course from Prager University. It is presented in the form of a 5-minute video titled “Why You Should Love Fossil Fuel.” Here’s course description:

Every year on Earth Day we learn how bad humanity’s economic development is for the health of the planet. But maybe this is the wrong message. Maybe we should instead reflect on how human progress, even use of fossil fuels, has made our environment cleaner and healthier. Alex Epstein of the Center for Industrial Progress explains.

We hope you like this, because you’ll undoubtedly be hearing much more from Alex in the future as we are happy that he has joined us at the Center for Study of Science as one of Cato’s newest adjunct scholars.

Also trying to bring a positive light to our future and change the course of modern environmentalism are Michael Schellenberger and Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough Institute. These guys are co-authors of the Ecomodernist Manifesto that we highlighted in these pages last issue. For Earth Day, they wrote a piece for USA Today titled “Want to Save the Planet? Say Bye-bye to Nature.” They mean “bye-bye” not in the sense of nature going away, but that we (humans) should bid it farewell as we exit. Here is the lead:

Since before the first Earth Day in 1970, environmentalists have argued that solving environmental problems required humans to get closer to nature. The “back to the land” movement urged people to leave cities, which were viewed as crowded and polluted. Renewable energy was recommended because it integrates human civilization into natural energy flows, such as water, biofuels and the sun. Similarly, organic agriculture was better because it integrated farmers and consumers into the natural rhythms of nature.

In recent years, though, a growing number of environmental scientists and activists are saying that the best way to protect nature is not by returning to it, but rather by leaving it alone.

This fits closely with the idea that technology and advanced society leads to better environmental protection—an opinion that we share. You ought have a look.

And also, be sure not to miss the Wall Street Journal op-ed penned by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), who chairs the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. Last week, Smith’s committee held a hearing on the justification and feasibility of the Obama administration’s recently announced  “UN Climate Pledge.” Rep. Smith’s op-ed was in response to President Obama fossil-fuel-burning Earth Day foray into the Florida Everglades to tell us that we need to take action to restrict the burning of fossil fuels in the name of mitigating climate change. While we have a good suggestion for the President as to some fossil-fuel saving measures that immediately come to mind, we’ll bite our tongue because they wouldn’t have any impact on the climate anyway. In fact, this is true for all emissions-limiting actions that come from the United States—a point that Rep. Lamar stresses in his WSJ piece (with help from information originating from our work and conveyed to him via last week’s testimony of Dr. Judy Curry).

In the end, Rep. Smith astutely concludes:

When assessing climate change, we should focus on good science, not politically correct science.

Hear! Hear!

Back in February, I speculated that 2015 might be the “Year of Educational Choice” in the same way that the Wall Street Journal declared 2011 the “Year of School Choice” after 13 states enacted new or expanded school choice laws.

This year, in addition to a slew of more traditional school choice proposals, about a dozen legislatures considered new or expanded education savings accounts (ESAs). As I explained previously:

ESAs represent a move from school choice to educational choice because families can use ESA funds to pay for a lot more than just private school tuition. Parents can use the ESA funds for tutors, textbooks, homeschool curricula, online classes, educational therapy, and more. They can also save unused funds for future educational expenses, including college.

Currently, two states have ESA laws: Arizona and Florida. Both states redirect 90% of the funds that they would have spent on a student at her assigned district school into her education savings account. The major difference between the two laws is that Arizona’s ESA is managed by the Arizona Department of Education while Florida’s is privately managed by Step Up For Students and AAA Scholarships, the nonprofit scholarship organizations that also issue scholarships through the Sunshine State’s tax credit law.

Both Arizona and Florida expanded their ESA programs this year. Earlier this month, Arizona expanded eligibility for the ESA to students living on Native American reservations. And just today, the Florida House of Representatives voted unanimously to expand its ESA. Travis Pillow of the RedefinED Online blog explains:

The legislation would allow children with muscular dystrophy and a broader range of students with autism to use Personal Learning Scholarship Accounts, a cutting-edge program created last year.

The legislation would also open the program to three- and four-year-olds, expand the services that can be paid for with the accounts, increase oversight for the nonprofit organizations that administer the program, and allow them to collect administrative fees.

The entire Florida Senate cosponsored the legislation and passed it earlier this month. The bill now returns to the Senate where the only major difference is the level of funding.

Three other states also passed ESA bills. Last month, Mississippi adopted an ESA for students with special needs, followed by Tennessee and Montana this month. The Montana legislature also passed a scholarship tax credit law. Both Montana bills are pending action by the governor.

In addition, Nevada passed a new scholarship tax credit law in April, and Arkansas enacted school vouchers for students with special needs.

So far, 2015 has seen state legislatures in seven states adopt eight new or expanded educational choice programs–and the legislative season isn’t over yet. Legislators in Missouri and Nevada are still considering education savings accounts, Gov. Scott Walker is pushing to expand Wisconsin’s school voucher program, and the Texas state senate recently passed a scholarship tax credit bill. (Alabama legislators are also contemplating expanding their scholarship tax credit law, but the legislation desperately needs improvement.)

Whether or not 2015 tops 2011 in the number of new and expanded educational choice programs, this year has seen a lot of progress toward educational freedom.

Live Free and Learn: Scholarship Tax Credits in New Hampshire

This week, two federal court decisions here in D.C. reiterated the importance of the Fourth Amendment in police encounters.

In the U.S. Supreme Court, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote the Court’s opinion in Rodriguez v. United States, declaring that prolonging a traffic stop to initiate a K-9 sniff of a vehicle was unconstitutional. It’s not a revolutionary decision or a watershed moment in the Court’s Fourth Amendment jurisprudence, but it’s always good to see the Court recognize that there are limits on the police during traffic stops. (Such recognition is not usually the case.) That said, police will still try to find ways to get you to surrender your rights during stops.

Down the street at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, Judge Janice Rogers Brown wrote a concurrence in a case that gets to the heart of the problem in Fourth Amendment law today. Because lower courts are not allowed to ignore Supreme Court holdings even when judges think SCOTUS is wrong, Judge Brown had to vote in favor of the government. But in United States v. Gross, concerning D.C.’s roving patrols for illegal firearms in high crime areas, Judge Brown was quite clear when she wrote:

Despite lacking any semblance of particularized suspicion when the initial contact is made, the police subject these individuals to intrusive searches unless they can prove their innocence. Our case law considers such a policy consistent with the Fourth Amendment. I continue to think this is error. Our jurisprudence perpetuates a fiction of voluntary consent where none exists and validates a policy that subverts the framework of Terry v. Ohio, 392 U.S. 1 (1968).

In the absence of any particularized reports, evidence, or suspicions, patrolling officers simply question every likely person they encounter. They “employ[] a simple technique: they ask[] any individual they encounter[] if he or she ha[s] a gun and then watch[] to see if that individual engage[s] in what the officers perceive[] to be suspicious behavior.” If consent to question or search is refused, officers frequently construe citizens’ varied reactions to their probes as rationalizing a Terry stop.

As a thought experiment, try to imagine this scene in Georgetown. Would residents of that neighborhood maintain there was no pressure to comply, if the District’s police officers patrolled Prospect Street in tactical gear, questioning each person they encountered about whether they were carrying an illegal firearm? Nothing about the Gun Recovery Unit’s modus operandi is designed to convey a message that compliance is not required. While viewing such an encounter as consensual is roughly equivalent to finding the latest Sasquatch sighting credible, I submit to the prevailing orthodoxy, but I continue to reject its counterintuitive premise.

With the guise of voluntary consent stripped away, the reality of the District’s regime is revealed. It is a rolling roadblock that sweeps citizens up at random and subjects them to undesired police interactions culminating in a search of their persons and effects. If the Fourth Amendment is intended to offer meaningful protection in the context of Terry stops, the voluntary consent exemption cannot be used to engage with members of the public en masse and at random to fabricate articulable suspicions for virtually every citizen officers encounter on patrol. (Internal citations omitted.)

The state of Fourth Amendment jurisprudence is not good, but cases like these provide a glimmer of hope that the Supremes will come around one of these days. You should read Judge Brown’s full concurrence here.

The Obama administration is part of Saudi Arabia’s 10-member “coalition” fighting against Houthi rebels and in support of the now-deposed Yemeni government that is in exile in Riyadh. This was recently underscored by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who said of the Saudis, “We’re not going to step away from our alliances and our friendships.”

Alas, the entire Yemen campaign is built on a lie. Contrary to Riyadh’s claims, the Houthis are not directed by, and seem only barely supported by, Iran, whose supposed involvement is the ostensible reason for U.S. involvement. Instead, the rebels have been fighting against the former Yemeni government for years.

America’s one-time ally, then-Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, battled the Houthis a decade ago. But after Saleh was ousted in 2012, he allied with the Houthis against his successor, President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The newly empowered rebels, supported by the official security forces who remained loyal to Saleh, ousted Hadi last fall.

Those familiar with Yemeni politics agree that none of this had anything to do with Iran or Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government claims that it wants to restore Hadi to power. But his followers largely abandoned him after he fled into exile and endorsed Saudi airstrikes on his fellow citizens.

As I point out in American Spectator online: “Yemen’s political turbulence is largely irrelevant to the U.S. America’s only serious security concern is the al-Qaeda affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). But AQAP has gained from Saudi Arabia’s attacks.”

By any normal measure Riyadh is far more inimical to American interests than Iran. Saudi Arabia is a totalitarian theocratic gerontocracy.

In contrast to Kuwait and even Iran, there are no elections, political opposition, or dissenting viewpoints in Saudi Arabia. Anyone who voices criticism is treated as if he was in the Soviet Union.

The U.S. State Department’s latest human rights assessment noted that Saudi “citizens lack the right and legal means to change their government; pervasive restrictions on universal rights such as freedom of expression, including on the internet, and freedom of assembly, association, movement, and religion; and a lack of equal rights for women, children, and noncitizen workers.” The report went on to cite “torture and other abuses.”

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is even more restrictive when it comes to religious liberty. For instance, the Saudis long have underwritten the intolerant Wahhabist theology around the world, including in America.

Spiritual oppression is complete. Not one church, synagogue, temple, or other house of worship operates in the Kingdom. Gathering together privately in a home is enough for arrest.

The Kingdom’s international policies are equally bad. Saudi Arabia was one of just three governments to recognize the Afghan Taliban. Saudis generously funded al-Qaeda prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks.

The Kingdom’s malign role continues. A 2009 Wikileaks document indicated that then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton acknowledged, “Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide.”

In Syria, the Saudi government has financed and supplied extremist Syrian rebels. In neighboring Bahrain, Riyadh sent in troops to back the repressive Sunni monarchy.

Yet President Obama is holding the Saudi royals’ coats as they intervene in the Yemeni civil war.

U.S. policymakers have sold American values for a pittance, largely because of Saudi oil. However, the Saudi royals always needed to sell their oil to fund their brutal repression and lavish lifestyles. Moreover, U.S. reliance on foreign supplies, in what always has been a global market, is down dramatically.

Yet the one-way relationship continues. President Obama praised the late Saudi King Abdullah’s “steadfast and passionate belief in the importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship as a force for stability and security in the Middle East.” Of course the royals believe in the “alliance.” It’s cheaper to borrow U.S. forces than hire bodyguards.

The royal system’s vulnerabilities are only likely to grow. The danger of making a pact with the devil, as America has done with Riyadh, is that you risk being locked in the devil’s embrace, like in Yemen.

The problems of the teacher tenure system, especially in big cities where powerful unions defend members against dismissal, are familiar enough. Less well known is the newer, parallel–and arguably more alarming–rise of police and prison-guard tenure under what are known as Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights (LEOBR or LEOBOR) laws. 

Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, for example, has blamed Maryland’s LEOBR law for frustrating the investigation into the death of Freddie Gray while in police custody. Maryland’s law provides that after an incident superiors cannot question an officer without the presence of a lawyer of the officer’s choosing, and that officers have 10 days to line up such representation. Critics say that by the time those suspected of misbehavior have to commit to a story, they will have had ample opportunity to consult with others about what to say. Most of the officers present have cooperated with the investigation of Gray’s death, the city says, but at least one has not. 

While the details of LEOBR laws vary from state to state, Mike Riggs’s 2012 account in Reason (“Why Firing a Bad Cop Is Damn Near Impossible”) cites these features as typical: 

Unlike a member of the public, the officer gets a “cooling off” period before he has to respond to any questions. Unlike a member of the public, the officer under investigation is privy to the names of his complainants and their testimony against him before he is ever interrogated. Unlike a member of the public, the officer under investigation is to be interrogated “at a reasonable hour,” with a union member present. Unlike a member of the public, the officer can only be questioned by one person during his interrogation. Unlike a member of the public, the officer can be interrogated only “for reasonable periods,” which “shall be timed to allow for such personal necessities and rest periods as are reasonably necessary.” Unlike a member of the public, the officer under investigation cannot be “threatened with disciplinary action” at any point during his interrogation. If he is threatened with punishment, whatever he says following the threat cannot be used against him.

What happens after the interrogation again varies from state to state. But under nearly every law enforcement bill of rights, the following additional privileges are granted to officers: Their departments cannot publicly acknowledge that the officer is under investigation; if the officer is cleared of wrongdoing or the charges are dropped, the department may not publicly acknowledge that the investigation ever took place, or reveal the nature of the complaint. The officer cannot be questioned or investigated by “non-government agents,” which means no civilian review boards. If the officer is suspended as a result of the investigation, he must continue to receive full pay and benefits until his case is resolved. In most states, the charging department must subsidize the accused officer’s legal defense.

A violation of any of the above rights can result in dismissal—not of the officer, but of the charges against him.

Maryland was the first state to pass a LEOBR, in 1972, and by now many states have followed, invariably after lobbying from police unions and associations. Often the bills are sponsored by Republicans, who seem to forget their normal skepticism of public employees as an interest group when uniformed services are involved.

Prison and jail guards are often covered by these laws as well, and scandals of corrections administration (the state-run Baltimore jail had a huge one in which the Maryland LEOBR was implicated) are often hard to investigate because of the law’s barriers. Union contracts often add further layers of insulation from discipline. In its coverage of abuse allegations at New York’s notorious Attica prison, for example, the New York Times reported, “Under their union contract, corrections officers are obligated to answer questions only from their employers and have the right to refuse to talk to outside police agencies. State Police investigators attempted to interview 15 guards; 11 declined to cooperate.”

Aware of Baltimore’s long (and still-unfolding) history of police misconduct, Mayor Rawlings-Blake and the state ACLU and other groups have called for a partial rollback of Maryland’s LEOBR. Yet its defenders are well organized, and reform bills never made it out of committee in the now-concluded state legislative session.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s House unanimously voted last year to enact a “Correctional Officers’ Bill of Rights”–as if this all were completely uncontroversial. It shouldn’t be.

A century ago this week, one of the most important battles in the Great War began. Allied forces landed in what is typically called the Gallipoli or Dardanelles Campaign. The campaign went badly almost from the start, with heavy casualties on both sides. Ultimately London admitted defeat and withdrew its forces eight and a half months later.

The fight offered another horrid highlight to the insane paroxysm of violence eventually known as World War I.

More than 30 cemeteries fill the Gallipoli Peninsula. As many Turkish and allied troops died in this one extended battle–perhaps 120,000(though Turkish figures are incomplete and probably low)–as did Americans in the entire conflict.

For reasons that seem sadly frivolous today, all of Europe’s major powers, including the Ottoman Empire—the tottering “Sick Man of Europe”—went to war in 1914. No conflict is pretty, but World War I was particularly dreadful.

The Entente forces decided to attempt to force the Dardanelles, seize Istanbul, and open the Bosphorus Straits into the Black Sea. The battle commenced in February 1915. The British fleet first tried to push through the Straits but was halted by shore batteries and mines.

The allies then commenced an amphibious operation. Although soldiers from Britain, France, and India (a British colony at the time) were involved, men from Australia and New Zealand, grouped in the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps, played a leading role.

By January 9, 1916 the allied forces had been withdrawn. In a war noted for bloody futility, Gallipoli stood out as an example of purposeless killing.

The battle was the Ottomans’ greatest victory in a losing war. Only a sideshow for Britain and France, Gallipoli was a searing experience for Australia and New Zealand.

Gallipoli’s Anzac memorial displays the words of Mustafa Kemal, a 34-year-old divisional commander and later founder of modern Turkey (when he added the name Ataturk): “You are now lying in the soil of a friendly country. Therefore rest in peace. There is no difference between the Johnnies and the Mehmets to us where they lie side by side here in this country of ours.”

As I wrote in Forbes, “For an American, Gallipoli provides the same haunting feeling as visiting Antietam or Gettysburg, or Arlington Cemetery. It is the scene of heroism and tragedy, the formative experience in the destruction of one nation and creation of another.”

The cemeteries, big and small, give Gallipoli its majesty and tragedy. For instance, the Beach Cemetery is the final resting place to 379 allied soldiers. Most of the dead were in their early 20s, cut down with most of their lives before them.

Turkish mothers and fathers lost children too. Among Alcitepe’s dead was a 15-year-old, Hasanoglu Ahmet, from nearby Canakkale.

The battle settled nothing militarily. After the allied withdrawal the conflict went on for almost another three years.

First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill lost his job as a result of the ill-fated campaign, and departed to command a battalion on the Western Front, where the war eventually was decided with American aid. Britain went on to spur an Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire. Out of the wreckage emerged a new Turkish state headed by Ataturk, as well as a gaggle of artificial nations, some of which are dissolving before our eyes today.

Not only was the Gallipoli campaign futile, so was the entire conflict. The entry of the United States was particularly mad, a reckless act by an arrogant President Woodrow Wilson, who believed that he had been anointed from above to reorder the globe.

As a result, tens of thousands of Americans died to enable the Europeans to plunder the defeated, including the Ottomans. The Versailles Treaty became but an armistice for a generation, leading to the far more destructive World War II.

Today Gallipoli is peaceful, a place for study, reflection, even reverence. The momentous events of the Dardanelles remain alive even though a century has passed.

After one of the longest confirmation processes in the history of the Attorney General’s office, Loretta Lynch was confirmed by the Senate today as Eric Holder’s successor.

From a criminal justice perspective, whether Lynch will embrace or abandon Holder’s position on state-level drug legalization and his announced commitment to reforming civil asset forfeiture are two questions that spring immediately to mind.

Loretta Lynch zealously defended civil asset forfeiture during her confirmation hearings, and was a devoted practitioner of it as a U.S. Attorney in New York.  One of her seizure cases, that of the Hirsch brothers [$], garnered widespread attention and condemnation, and helped spur the nationwide calls for reform to which Eric Holder responded.

As previously discussed here:

In May of 2012 the Hirsch brothers, joint owners of Bi-County Distributors in Long Island, had their entire bank account drained by the Internal Revenue Service working in conjunction with Lynch’s office. Many of Bi-County’s customers paid in cash, and when the brothers made several deposits under $10,000, federal agents accused them of “structuring” their deposits in order to avoid the reporting requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act. Without so much as a criminal charge, the federal government emptied the account, totaling $446,651.11.

For more than two years, and in defiance of the 60-day deadline for the initiation of proceedings included in the Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform Act of 2000, Lynch’s office simply sat on the money while the Hirsch brothers survived off the goodwill their business had engendered with its vendors over the decades.

That case, which was handled by the Institute for Justice, finally ended […] when Lynch’s office quietly returned the money, having found no evidence of any wrongdoing. The Hirsch brothers and their business survived, but just how many law-abiding small businesses can afford to give the government a 33-month, interest-free loan of nearly half a million dollars?

 Indeed, Holder’s recent policy memo on structuring offenses explicitly forbids precisely the behavior exhibited by Lynch’s office during that case.  

There have been positive reforms to civil asset forfeiture at the state and federal levels over the last several months. Lynch’s tenure comes at a pivotal time in the national debate over forfeiture laws. Whether Lynch embraces those reforms or attempts to stem the tide in favor of more expansive government power remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, perhaps Holder’s most important decision as Attorney General was his order to “de-prioritize” marijuana prohibition enforcement in states that have voted to legalize recreational or medical marijuana.  While Holder’s commitment to that policy has occasionally been questioned, the potential impact of the decision by the federal government to allow states to create their own drug policies cannot be overstated.

Loretta Lynch is a staunch opponent of marijuana legalization and spoke against President Obama’s position on marijuana.  But when pressed, Lynch gave answers during her confirmation hearings that implied that she would not upset current policy (even if some might bicker with her description of current policy): 

“I can tell you that not only do I not support the legalization of marijuana, it is not the position of the Department of Justice currently to support the legalization. Nor would it be the position should I become confirmed as attorney general.” 

Attorney General nominee Loretta Lynch rebuffs Obama’s opinion on marijuana

So, what will her policy on state-level drug legalization look like? Technically speaking, those participating in state-legal drug markets in states like Colorado and Washington are in plain violation of federal law.  Their ability to operate thus far has been solely due to the grace of the Obama Administration.  Will Lynch’s confirmation threaten that executive grace?  Anti-prohibition advocates are confident that Lynch will maintain Holder’s priorities, but Lynch has thus far refused to tip her hand from a policy perspective.

America has a new Attorney General, but precisely what that means for federal criminal justice reform remains an open question.

The U.S. Constitution vests the legislative, executive, and judicial powers in separate branches of the government that are supposed to police each other. But what if one of those branches violates the law in a manner that personally benefits the members of another branch? That’s what has been happening since the day ObamaCare became law in 2010. For more than five years, the executive branch has been issuing illegal subsidies that personally benefit the most powerful interest group in the nation’s capital: members of Congress and their staffs. A decision today by the Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee not to investigate those illegal subsidies shows just how difficult it can be to prevent one branch of the government from corrupting members of another branch.  

It is no secret that executive-branch agencies have broken the law, over and over, to protect ObamaCare. King v. Burwell challenges the IRS’s decision to offer illegal premium subsidies in states with federally established health-insurance Exchanges. University of Iowa law professor Andy Grewal recently revealed the IRS is illegally offering Exchange subsidies to at least two other ineligible groups: certain undocumented immigrants and people who incorrectly project their income to be above the poverty line. Treasury, Health and Human Services, and other executive-branch agencies have unilaterally modified or suspended so many parts of the ACA, it’s hard to keep count – and even harder to know what the law will look like tomorrow. Even some of the administration’s supporters acknowledge its actions have gone too far

The longest-running and perhaps most significant way the administration has broken the law to protect ObamaCare is by issuing illegal subsidies to members of Congress.

When congressional Democrats passed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), they were so desperate to pass a health care law that the ACA did not receive the scrutiny most bills do. Many members of Congress and their staffs were therefore surprised to learn that, as of the moment the president signed the ACA, that very law threw them out of their health plans. The ACA prohibits members of Congress and their staffs from receiving health coverage through the Federal Employees’ Health Benefits Program. They remained free to purchase health insurance on their own, but they would have to do so without the $10,000 or so the federal government “contributed” to their FEHBP premiums. In effect, the ACA gave members of Congress a pay cut of around $10,000.

Oops. 

Big deal, you say. ObamaCare made lots of people take a pay cut and threw millions out of their health plans. Ah, yes, my friends. But those were little people. This is Congress. 

Rather than risk Congress reopening the ACA to restore their lost health coverage – because who knows what other changes Congress might make in the process – the administration simply pretended that that part of the law didn’t exist. The Office of Personnel Management announced that members of Congress and their staffs could remain in the FEHBP until the ACA’s Exchanges launched in 2014. The president thus stuck to his promise, if you like your health plan, and you’re a member of Congress, you can keep your health plan

That still didn’t solve the president’s problems, however. The ACA says that as of 2014, the only coverage the federal government can offer members of Congress in connection with their employment is coverage created under the Act. In effect, that means Exchange coverage. But the law still cut off that $10,000 “employer contribution” to their health benefits. According to Politico, “OPM initially ruled that lawmakers and staffers couldn’t receive the subsidies once they went into the exchanges.” After the president intervened, OPM just ignored that part of the law and started issuing (illegal) subsidies on the order of $10,000 to hundreds of individual members of Congress and thousands of individual congressional staffers.

Note that I label these illegal payments to members of Congress subsidies, rather than compensation. When an employer pays part of a worker’s health premiums as a condition of that worker’s employment, that’s compensation. But these payments are not a condition of employment. In fact, under the ACA, a condition of their employment is that they not receive these payments.

Note too the eerie parallel to King v. Burwell: an executive-branch agency ignores the clear language of the ACA to issue health-insurance subsidies to people that just happen to have the effect of preventing Congress from reopening the law. The OPM’s illegal subsidies are thus indistinguishable from personal bribes to members of Congress.

Offering these subsidies to members of Congress violates the ACA in at least one other way as well. The ACA prohibits employers from making contributions to their employees’ coverage through the Exchanges that serve individuals. (The law’s technical term for them is “American Health Benefits Exchanges.”) So the administration let members of Congress enroll through the ACA’s Small Business Health Options Program Exchanges, or “SHOP Exchanges,” where employers can make contributions to coverage their workers’ premiums. The problem here is that the “S” in “SHOP” stands for small business – i.e., firms with fewer than 50 employees. Yet the OPM and the D.C. SHOP Exchange, where thousands of members of Congress, their staffs and their dependents have purchased coverage, are pretending that Congress is a small business with fewer than 50 employees

Which brings us back to the Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee. Committee chairman David Vitter (R-LA) has been waging a lonely battle to end these bribes. After suffering numerous setbacks, Vitter now seeks to shine sunlight on how these bribes happened. He wants to subpoena documents relating to OPM’s claim that Congress is a small business. You would think Republicans, who outnumber Democrats on the committee 10-9, would gladly join Vitter in exposing the administration’s malfeasance. Ending Congress’ special ObamaCare exemption – i.e., the bribes individual members of Congress and their staffs are receiving not to reopen ObamaCare – polls off the charts. More than 90 percent of voters believe this exemption is unfair. I mean, c’mon. The rap against congressional Republicans is that they are hyper-partisans who will do anything to take down President Obama and/or ObamaCare. You would think this would be too good an opportunity for those rabid partisans to miss.

You would be wrong.

Today, five committee Republicans voted with all nine Democrats to quash Vitter’s subpoena effort. Someone should ask the 14 senators who voted to keep the truth hidden whether they are personally receiving one of those illegal subsidies, and if so, the precise dollar amount.

I was not all that surprised by the result. I have spoken to many GOP staffers, including leadership staff, about how these illegal subsidies are immoral and standing in the way of ObamaCare repeal. Their faces freeze the moment I raise the subject. Often, they don’t say another word and leave the room as quickly as they can. I understand their fear. They have families. Mortgages. Illnesses. To them, ending these illegal subsidies seems like a $10,000 hit to their annual income.

Fortunately for them, they are mistaken. If those subsidies disappeared, Congress would reinstate them so quickly your head would spin. Congress would even provide back pay that would make members and staff completely whole. The absolute certitude of that outcome is exactly why the administration chose not to enforce this part of the ACA in the first place. They knew that members of Congress – Republicans and Democrats alike – would be so desperate to serve their own interests by reinstating that employee benefit that Republicans could insert important changes to ObamaCare and possibly still have enough support to override a veto. 

But more important, members of Congress and their staff should suffer that pay cut because that’s the law. The ACA has caused millions of Americans to lose their health plans and take pay cuts of similar magnitude. Why should people who work in Congress get a special exemption while people who work in auto repair do not? Is there a class of Americans who are above the law?

For all the talk in Washington about the corrupting influence of money in politics, remarkably few people seem to care that the executive branch is promiscuously issuing illegal taxpayer subsidies that not only personally benefit members of Congress but that also directly affect how members of Congress vote. Vitter deserves credit for taking the lead in trying to expose and put an end to those bribes. The framers of the Constitution did an admirable job, but sometimes the checks and balances they created are not enough to prevent the corruption of one branch of government by another.

John Hinderaker at the powerlineblog posted immigration polling data from the Republican Senate staff.  You can read the poll results here.  According to the top Gallup poll reported by the staff, 60 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the current immigration system while 33 percent are satisfied.  Of those dissatisfied, 39 percent wanted less immigration and 7 percent wanted more, a subgroup wants less immigration is hardly a ringing endorsement of more restrictions. 

However, here is another poll question that Gallup has asked periodically since 1965 that shows public opinion becoming more supportive of increasing immigration as the annual number of green cards climbs.  The question is: “In your view, should immigration be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased?”  Surprisingly, Americans have become more supportive of liberalizing immigration over time.  In 1965, only 7 percent of respondents wanted to increase immigration while 24.5 percent did in 2014 (average of two polls in that year).   

  Respondents Who Say “Increase Immigration”              

         

Sources: Gallup Survey and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

 

Those who say that immigration should be decreased were at a low point of 33 percent in 1965, peaked at 65 percent in 1993, and have since decreased to 38.5 percent in 2015.  Populist demand to limit legal immigration is decreasing.   

 

Respondents Who Say “Decrease Immigration”

Sources: Gallup Survey and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

 

Support for the same level of immigration has been more constant over time.

 

Respondents Who Say “Same Level of Immigration”

 

Sources: Gallup Survey and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

 

Combining the respondents who wanted more immigration with those who support the same level shows a near-constant improvement in opinion since the early 1990s. 

 

Respondents Who Say “Increase Immigration” and “Same Level”

Sources: Gallup Survey and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

 

The last time Congress seriously tried to restrict legal immigration was in 1996 - and that effort failed despite the then popularity of such a measure. Such a bill in today’s political environment with substantially less support for restricting legal immigration will be dead upon arrival.  Immigration-restrictionists may like to pretend that they are fighting on the side of public opinion against an “elite consensus” that supports further liberalizing immigration.  They are really fighting against public opinion that is less hostile to immigration than it used to be.

On the floor of the Senate last night, on the eve of Earth Day, Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse went after the Cato Institute—among others, including the Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal—for our having accused the senator and his friends in the environmental movement of “having a widespread faith in the government’s ability to solve problems.” We plead guilty. Not only do we believe those folks are of that faith—the evidence is plain, even if the evidence supporting the faith is lacking—but we believe also that it is a self-serving faith, because it drives them to find ever more problems to solve, problems most of us never knew we had.

But it’s a letter that then-Cato President John Allison recently sent to Sen. Whitehouse and others in Congress that seems most to exercise the good senator. As the C-SPAN transcript puts it:

cato also sent us a letter in response to our inquiry, telling us we cannot use the awesome power of the federal government to cow cato and others. cow? according to the “wall street journal” editorial page, which, sadly, has become a front for the fossil fuel industry, we were – quote – “trying to silence the other side.” although i have to confess, mr. president, it is not clear how the other side would be silenced by simply having to reveal whose payroll they’re on, which is all we asked. let’s be clear our letter didn’t suggest that industry scientists should be silenced, just that the public should know if those scientists are being paid by the very industries with a big economic …

Ah. There we have it. We’re in the pockets of Big Oil. Never mind that the facts show otherwise, that Cato’s donor base is wide and composed almost entirely of individuals animated by the idea of a free society under limited government.

But that’s not the main point, not really. Rather, it’s the assumption of Sen. Whitehouse and his friends that they, whose outlook depends so much on government funding, fairly dripping with the taxpayers’ blood, have the cleanest of hands and the purest of motives. Yet why should we believe that the avaricious individuals these folks call-on government to check, suddenly become virtuous when they have the monopoly power of government in their grasp, to say nothing of the public till at their disposal? If ever scrutiny were warranted, I should think it on that side of the ledger.

War has become Washington’s panacea for any international problem. Since the end of the Cold War, no other state has attacked as many countries or threatened as many countries as has the United States.

The most persistent threat to use force has been against Iran, which is said to endanger the United States. Yet Iranians likely believe differently.

In 1953, Washington supported a coup against the democratic Iranian government. Through 1979, every American administration backed the repressive Shah. In the1980s, the United States supported Iraq’s aggressive war against Iran. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama ostentatiously kept “all options on the table.”

Military threats continue to rain down on Tehran. For instance, since Iran will not negotiate away its bomb, in the view of Bush administration aide, John Bolton the United States must attack:  “Time is terribly short, but a strike can still succeed.”

SAIS’s Joshua Muravchik recently argued that “we can strike as often as necessary.” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) explained, “we have to be willing and we have to make the leadership of Iran realize that we are willing to take military action.”

The belief that war would be quick, simple, and sure reflects either simple-minded naiveté or criminal arrogance. Virtually every military action Washington has taken in the Middle East has resulted in unintended consequences. Bombing Iran would be no different.

Former General Anthony Zinni warned:  “I think anybody that believes that it would be a clear strike and it would be over and there would be no reaction is foolish.” Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta predicted that “we could possibly be the target of retaliation from Iran, striking our ships, striking our military bases.” Another former Pentagon chief, Robert Gates, warned of possible “catastrophic” consequences, including making “a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable.”

Treating one of the most important Middle Eastern states as a permanent enemy would rally the Iranian public around the regime, set back the cause of democracy, encourage Tehran to proceed with nuclear weapons, and create another Islamic grievance. An attack on Iran could spark a violent reaction among Arabs as well as Muslims elsewhere in the world.

American actions also should be constrained by morality. War can be justified in self-defense, but Iran poses no meaningful threat to the United States. For instance, Sen. Cotton noted that Tehran “can’t challenge us,” including America’s Mideast allies.

The case for war comes down to preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. There are lots of good reasons to want Tehran to remain free of nuclear weapons. But absent a suicidal impulse, which so far has been absent from Iran’s leaders, there is no chance that Tehran would launch an attack on either America or Israel (which possesses upwards of 200 nukes).

Israel has particular reason to feel uncomfortable with an Islamic bomb, but one already exists in unstable Pakistan. Senior Israeli policymakers in Mossad and other security and military agencies routinely dismiss claims of Iranian irrationality.

The region’s Muslim leaders also oppose an Iranian bomb and other nations conceivably could join Tehran in a nuclear race. An undesirable outcome, no doubt, but one not warranting America to initiate war against a state which has not attacked or even threatened to attack the United States.

One of the oddest arguments for bombing Iran is that if America doesn’t bomb Iran now, possession of a nuclear weapon would allow Tehran to deter America in the future, preventing America from bombing Iran then. War thus goes from means to end: The United States should kill and destroy to protect its ability to kill and destroy.

As I wrote in Forbes:  “War is not just another policy option. It should be a last resort, reserved for the most important interests and most moral causes.”

None of these is at stake in the case of Iran. The mere fact that America is able to war against every nation on the planet does not justify it doing so.

Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

In the process of writing our upcoming book, The Lukewarmer’s Manifesto, we wandered into the funhouse of the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA).

Recall that the NCA is a product of the federal government’s U.S. Global Change Research Program, whose motto isThirteen Agencies, One Mission: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science.”

In their case, “empower” is synonymous with “indoctrinate.”

Here is a good example:

The section on hurricanes in Chapter 2 (“Our Changing Climate”) caught our eye. The NCA has a sidebar on the history of the hurricane “power dissipation index” (PDI), a well-known cubic function of the wind velocity. The NCAs graphs  begin in 1970 and end in 2009 (a full four years before the NCA was released). They include a trend line through the PDI data beginning in 1980 that’s going up for whatever reason and that is apparently convenient for drawing an association with human-caused global warming. But had the NCA authors consulted a longer record, say, from 1920 to 2013 (the last year data was available for the 2014 NCA) they could have readily ruled out any role of global warming.

 

Figure 1. From page 42 of the hardcopy of the 2014 National Assessment Report form the USGCRP (available here).

The NCA’s reason for not using a longer record is that “there is considerable uncertainty in the record prior to the satellite era (early 1970s).”

On the surface, that’s true, but it is disingenuous. According to Dr. Chris Landsea who helped developed the National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic hurricane history data (known as HURDAT2):

…some storms were  missed, and many intensities are too low in the preaircraft reconnaissance era (before 1944 in the western half of the basin) and in the presatellite era (before 1972 for the entire basin). [emphases added]

In other words, the earlier PDI data prior to 1972 could be an underestimate, but it certainly isn’t an overestimate.

Dr. Ryan Maue was kind enough to provide us with the PDI record based upon the National Hurricane Center’s  HURDAT2 data back to 1920. There’s no significant trend when this record is examined, despite a warming of approximately 0.75°C in the earth’s surface temperature history. In this context, the NCA’s trend line (indicated in our figure in red) seems nothing but absurd.

 

Figure 2. Atlantic Basin Power Dissipation Index calculated from HURDAT2 by Ryan Maue. The NCA could have used this data, which, for its 2014 volume, ended in 2013. The trend in 1980-2009 is shown as per the NCA.

A voluminous literature supports the notion that periodic changes in the north-south temperature gradient in the Atlantic Ocean (known, not surprisingly, as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)), are related to hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.

According to Dr. Maue, the trend line drawn in the NCA basically starts during the negative phase of the AMO cycle (which promotes low hurricane activity) and ends during a positive phase (which is favorable for high levels of hurricane activity). A more accurate assessment of hurricane activity would begin in 1950 (reducing the influence of the cyclical nature of the AMO) and indicates a trend of zero (similar to the one beginning in 1920).

But such data apparently is a distraction when trying to paint an administration-preferred picture of the influence of anthropogenic climate change.

Reference:

Landsea, C. W., and J. L. Franklin, 2013. Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format. Monthly Weather  Review, 141, 3576-3592.

Ever since Ron Paul first introduced it in 2009, the “Federal Reserve Transparency” Act, calling for the elimination of the Federal Reserve System’s exemption from certain kinds of GAO audits, has been the subject of vigorous debate between proponents of greater government accountability and champions of an independent Federal Reserve.

But that debate has for the most part produced more heat than light, with hyperbole on both sides obscuring rather than shedding light on the debate’s central questions—questions like, “What could the proposed Fed Audits possibly reveal that existing audits and Fed testimony do not?,” and “To what extent would such audits pose a threat to the Fed’s independence?”

To get some honest answers to these questions, the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives recently held a Policy Forum, “Should the GAO Audit the Fed?” The forum’s participants, representing several important perspectives, were former GAO Comptroller General David Walker, Pulitzer Prize-winning author David Wessel, who also directs Brookings’ Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and our very own Mark Calabria, Cato’s director of Financial Regulation Studies.

Thanks to our participants’ expertise and also to the seamless moderation of their remarks by Wall Street Journal reporter Josh Zumbrun, the event turned out to be the most informative discussion of the issue to date!

OK, so I’m not exactly an unbiased critic. But watch the video and see if you don’t agree!

If this sample only leaves you yearning to hear more from these experts, check out Calabria’s piece on the actual content of the bill and David Wessel’s assessment of the motives behind and risks entailed in the proposed audits. For more on the GAO’s perspective, finally, have a look at this David Walker article.

[Cross-posted from Alt-M.org]

Here, courtesy of Cato’s www.HumanProgress.org, is the quintessence of Earth Day’s anti-humanism. Botswana and Burundi started off as equally poor. In 1962, their GNI per capita was a paltry $70 per person.

By 2012, Botswana’s income per person rose by some 10,829 percent to $7,650. Burundi’s rose by mere 243 percent to $240. Botswana is an African success story, while Burundi is a failure–that is, if you judge the two countries by their income and, consequently, their standards of living.

If, however, you judge the two countries by their CO2 emissions per person, Burundi is the clear winner. Between 1972 and 2010 (the maximum number of years for which data on CO2 emissions per capita is available for both countries), CO2 emissions per person in Burundi increased only 62 percent. In Botswana it skyrocketed by 8,847 percent.

As my colleague Pat Michaels noted earlier, growing wealth necessitates higher carbon emissions in the short or medium term, but greater prosperity enables people to become both greener and more energy efficient in the long term. Denying cheap energy to the developing world will trap hundreds of millions of people in poverty and lead to more humanitarian disasters.

 

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