Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posted earlier in the week at his blog, asking “Are Republicans Going Galt?”

Pointing to the Tea Party’s origin within the libertarian movement, Silver questions whether the Republican Party is tilting in the libertarian direction in wake of their solid defeats in 2006 and 2008.

The objective evidence Mr. Silver presents includes:

• A recent Gallup survey suggests that 80 percent of Republicans believe that Big Government is a bigger threat than big business, versus just 10 percent who think the opposite. He says “it has now become almost a definitional issue for Republicans.”

• “The Republican alternative budget could be considered a somewhat radical experiment in libertarianism”; and

• Republican insiders are increasingly uncertain about whether gay marriage, which was such an important issue for the party over 2000-2004, is any longer a winning issue at all for them.

Comparing Big Government to big business doesn’t really tell us what we need to know, unfortunately. Big business may be one of the entities competing with limited government that Republicans “sell their souls to” — however, there are a plethora of other entities that Republicans have chosen before smaller government, including puppet politicians, special interest groups, neo-conservatives, pork projects, and religion, to name just a few.

The idea that the Republican alternative budget is radical in any way is foreign to me. It is a far better budget than any one that Republicans proposed under the Bush Administration (no surprise there), and this budget would ultimately reduce the size of government if adopted. However, it is not even close to “a radical experiment in libertarianism”.

Speaking to Mr. Silver’s final point: I’m no Republican insider, but I never believed gay marriage was an important issue for the GOP. Ditto on abortion.

In 2004, for example, the RLC issued a press release against the Federal Marriage Amendment.  My recent post at this blog, “Are Republicans Shifting on Gay Marriage and the War on Drugs?“, indicates that at least some Republican legislators — most of whom were already in the moderate wing of the party — have had the courage to support equal rights for gays.

To this point, I count just two libertarian-leaning legislators (both from New Hampshire) who had the courage to take a principled stance of supporting marriage equality for gays and lesbians. If Republicans are going to stand up for equal rights in the near future (and why shouldn’t we?), it will have to be libertarian-leaning Republicans who lead on the issue.

As evangelical social conservative commentator Cal Thomas wrote recently, “The battle over same-sex marriage is on the way to being lost [for social conservatives]. For conservatives who still have faith in the political system to reverse the momentum, you are — to recall Harold Hill [in The Music Man] — ‘closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge’.”

In summary, I think the Republican Party is shifting, but it is not proven with the evidence provided by Nate Silver.  Instead, I measure it by how fast the RLC is growing (at a very rapid pace — we can barely keep up!), the enthusiasm of the Ron Paul movement, and the anger in the faces of those who attended the Tea Party protests last Wednesday.

The battle for liberty has just begun. Brace yourself.

As a result of organized Democrat opposition in key state legislatures, the state sovereignty movement is probably not going to be able to sweep the nation or even produce passed sovereignty resolutions in a majority of the states. Yet there have been some important achievements that may be enough to be called a limited victory, though the victories may never be acknowledged by the media and the current administration.

In one of the biggest developments for the state sovereignty effort, on Thursday Governor Rick Perry of Texas came out with a wholehearted endorsement of not only Texas House Representative Brandon Creighton’s state sovereignty resolution (HCR 50), but in support of all of the states whose legislatures are seeking to assert their rights to self-governance under the 10th Amendment to the Constitution.

I’ve never been a big fan of Rick Perry, though I’ve always admired his lovely hair. He’s too much in the pocket of the religious right and has too often been wrong on key issues vital to the future of Texas like the legalization of gambling. Yet on this issue Perry has consistently taken the lead, championing the autonomy of state governments, by rejecting federal stimulus money for unemployment and the strings which came with it, and now by supporting legislative efforts to assert 10th Amendment rights.

The bold stand which Perry and a few other governors like Alaska’s Sarah Palin, Mississippi’s Haley Barbour, and South Carolina’s Mark Sanford have taken against federal intrusion into the rights of state governments and the citizens of those states and the efforts of more than 30 state legislatures which have tried to pass — with mixed success — resolutions asserting state sovereignty under the 10th Amendment have offered a small ray of hope for better government at a time when the administration in Washington seems to be running completely out of control.

As the federal government spends us into generations of inconceivable debt, responsible state governments are trying to insulate themselves, protect their citizens and govern with fiscal common sense. Perry summed up what has become the common concern of people across the nation when he said:

“I believe that our federal government has become oppressive in its size, its intrusion into the lives of our citizens, and its interference with the affairs of our state. That is why I am here today to express my unwavering support for efforts all across our country to reaffirm the states’ rights affirmed by the Tenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. I believe that returning to the letter and spirit of the U.S. Constitution and its essential 10th Amendment will free our state from undue regulations, and ultimately strengthen our Union.”

Meanwhile state sovereignty resolutions have been moving forward in the state legislatures. In Oklahoma, Alaska, South Dakota, Indiana and most recently this week in Idaho and North Dakota, sovereignty bills have passed in both houses. But New Mexico, Arkansas and New Hampshire sovereignty bills were either killed in committee or voted down along partisan lines, and that’s likely to happen in many more states in the next couple of months. In other states bills just seem not to be moving forward and may not go anywhere because of Democrat opposition.

Even if the state sovereignty movement has not yet achieved enough success to be called a revolution, with six state legislatures and a number of prominent governors committed to sending a message to Washington, it is bound to have some impact. The influence has already been felt among Republican Senators and Representatives, who have started to realize that keeping their jobs means not waffling on fiscal issues. What remains to be seen is what governors with an eye on the presidency in 2012 like Sanford and Perry are banking on — whether this movement will translate into votes in the 2010 Congressional elections, building towards an even bigger shakeup in 2012.

Perhaps even more importantly, it shows that at least on the state level, some legislators and governors have woken up to the fact that the people are fed up with the excesses of the federal government and the mess they have created and are screaming for real grassroots change.

Not just a change of faces in the White House, but fundamental changes in national policy and a transfer of power away from bureaucrats and politicians and back to the people. We’re tired of seeing our rights, our money and our futures squandered and want to be back in control, through the ballot, through protests and through using the power of state governments under the Constitution to hold the federal government accountable and bring an end to its abuses of power.

All across the country on Tax Day, Republican Liberty Caucus members will be attending Tea Party Rallies to express dissent to Members of Congress and local officials and encourage sensible economic reforms that will enhance America’s struggling economy.

To see a listing of the Tea Parties in your state, click here. On February 27th, an estimated 30,000 Americans took to the street in 40+ cities across the country in the first nationwide “Tea Party” protest.

So why rally? What is the point? Several reasons: 1) There has not been ENOUGH dissent in this country and the “go along, get along” attitude has plagued us for many years; 2) folks are FINALLY starting to wake up, and public rallies engage average citizens in issues; 3) public officials pay attention to large groups of taxpayers; 4) it provides a coalition-building opportunity with like-minded groups; and 5) it allows the RLC to gain visibility.

The Tea Party movement has been organized to protest the Bailouts approved by Congress, the massive federal debt that continues to grow daily, and the increasing burden on average taxpayers. There is no better day to express your distrust of government than April 15 — Tax Day.

In conjunction with the Spirit of the Founders, RLC members are organizing and speaking at Taxpayer Tea Parties throughout the country. For example, in Melbourne, Florida, RLC East Central Florida Coordinator Matthew D. Nye has organized the Brevard Tea Party.

At its website, Nye features a video from a savvy young lady who discusses the relevance of Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged to the current state of the economy. She says:

“The similarities [in Atlas Shrugged compared to] today are striking. In Atlas, we see a world crumbling under the weight of government interventions and regulations. The economy is ground to a halt. Each day, more and more businesses are shutting their doors. The government blames greed and the free market and frantically imposes more government control, but the crisis only deepens. Sound familiar?”

Atlas is currently the Amazon.com “Best Seller” in the fiction category, but it’s RLC member Nye who is educating taxpayers in Brevard County, Florida.

According to the newly chartered Republican Liberty Caucus of Alabama, “Quite a few RLC members are active in the planning of Tea Party rallies to be held across Alabama (and the nation) on April 15th.”  Similarly, RLC Tennessee Officers Gregg Juster, Bryan Haddock, and Joe Dumas are assisting with the Tea Party organizing in Chattanooga.

In Arizona, RLC member Tom Jenney will be a featured speaker, along with RLC State Representative Frank Antenori, at the Tucson Tea Party. Members of the RLC of Pima County, including organize Ken Rineer, are active participants in the Tucson Tea Party.

In northern Virginia, RLC Secretary Aaron Biterman will be addressing the crowd at the Tea Party in Reston, an outer-Beltway suburb of the nation’s capital. Biterman will be speaking about continuing the “Spirit of the Revolution” in 2009 and the importance of eliminating the federal income tax.

These are just some of the RLC members and activists who have taken an active role in the Tea Party Movement.  Look for a full report post-April 15.

In addition to attending your local Tea Party, the RLC is encouraging its members to take the following five steps to promote local Tea Parties:

• Make signs with legible slogans that send a clear message to the public and the media;
• Call local talk radio hosts to ask them to announce the location, date, and time of your local Tea Party on the air for a few days leading up to the protest;
• Send a letter to the editor of your local newspaper announcing the rally;
• Write a press release and e-mail, mail and fax copies to the local TV stations, radio stations and newspapers; and
• Call the reporters that cover local events or politics and leave messages on their voice mail.

Mark Knoller of CBS News writes, “With no fanfare and little notice, the national debt has grown by more than $4 trillion during George W. Bush’s presidency.”

“On the day President Bush took office, the national debt stood at $5.727 trillion. The latest number from the Treasury Department shows the national debt now stands at more than $9.849 trillion. That’s a 71.9 percent increase on Mr. Bush’s watch.”

“The bailout plan now pending in Congress could add hundreds of billions of dollars to the national debt -– though President Bush said this morning he expects that over time, “much if not all” of the bailout money “will be paid back.””

“But the government is taking no chances. Buried deep in the hundred pages of bailout legislation is a provision that would raise the statutory ceiling on the national debt to $11.315 trillion. It’ll be the 7th time the debt limit has been raised during this administration. In fact it was just two months ago, on July 30, that President Bush signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act, which contained a provision raising the debt ceiling to $10.615 trillion.”

“A couple of weeks after he took office, President Bush addressed the Republican Congressional Retreat in Williamsburg and declared that his budget ‘pays down the national debt’. In recent years, President Bush almost never mentions the national debt.”

The Republican Liberty Caucus has issued a strong press release AGAINST the bailout.