President Obama counted on Midwestern states to deliver his 2008 Presidential victory. His popularity in the Midwest was high, having won by large margins in states like Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Clearly Midwest voters were interested in change and a new direction for the country.

But with less than two weeks until the 2010 mid-term elections, the Midwest has become the President’s biggest problem area.

The President’s party is poised to lose at least four Senate races in the Midwest (IN, MO, ND, OH) while two others remain tight contests in which the GOP candidate has been consistently leading (IL, WI). Of the four open Midwest gubernatorial contests, the GOP is posting solid results in three of them (IL, OH, WI) with another, Minnesota, still up for grabs.

Looking at swing Congressional races is where you really get an idea of the Democrats’ Midwestern problem. States that rarely have competitive races like Minnesota and Missouri each have several vulnerable incumbents in 2010. Missouri Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Ike Skelton, who has represented central-west Missouri for more than 30 years, is facing perhaps his toughest challenge yet. A similar situation is facing U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar, who represents northeast Minnesota. Oberstar has been in Congress consistently for nearly 40 years and is in the race of his life. Tim Walz, a second term Democrat from a southern Minnesota swing district, is facing a tough reelection battle as well.

Wisconsin — which is thought to be liberal but is more accurately categorized as a swing state — currently has only three Republicans in its eight member Congressional delegation but may have just two Democrats in its delegation by January, 2011. Vulnerable incumbents there include Reps. Steve Kagen (D) in the northeastern part of the state and Ron Kind (D) in the west.

Illinois and Ohio have between five and six seats each that are extremely competitive House races while four Michigan and three Iowa and Wisconsin seats are up in the air.

Illinois’ western-most district, represented by second term Congressman Phil Hare, was a seat pundits never thought would be in play. But the rural, gerrymandered district is now a national target of Republicans, who have an excellent candidate in businessman Bobby Schilling. Mark Kirk’s vacated seat in the moderate northern Chicago burbs is also up for grabs and is really the Democrat’s only pickup opportunity in the Midwest this cycle. Reps. Melissa Bean (D) in the western Chicago suburbs, Bill Foster (D) in the southern Chicago suburbs, and Debbie Halvorson (D) in central Illinois are also in tough reelection battles. Halvorson, who doesn’t shy away from any of her votes or support of the Obama agenda, has been down as far as eighteen points in recent surveys.

In Iowa, all three of the incumbent Democrat Congressmen, Reps. Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack, and Leonard Boswell could lose. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly (D) and Baron Hill (D) are facing tough challenges and Brad Ellsworth’s open seat in southern Indiana is poised for a Republican pickup.

The upper Midwest is heavily in play, too. Bart Stupak’s open Michigan upper Peninsula seat is leaning Republican, as are the two northern Wisconsin seats held by the retiring Rep. David Obey (D) and second term Democrat Steve Kagen.

The Democrats are losing rural voters who are deeply concerned about the economy and didn’t see any added benefits after the stimulus and Obamacare.

Voters in rural Ohio districts like the eastern-most districts of Reps. Zack Space (D) and Charlie Wilson (D) may be poised to boot out the incumbents. The same is true of swing districts in Ohio like that of northeast Ohio’s John Boccieri  and central Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy, first-term Democrats who rubber-stamped the entire Obama agenda. Suburban districts represented by Steve Driehaus (D) and Betty Sutton (D), which are centered around Akron and Cincinatti, are also in play.

Both the North and South Dakota At Large seats are up for grabs for the first time in many years, too. All told, the entire region is in play — from Skelton’s seat in central Missouri to Wilson’s seat in eastern Ohio and from Kagen’s seat in northeast Wisconsin all the way westward to the Dakotas.

A recent Rasmussen poll showed that voters are angry with Members of Congress who voted for Obamacare, the auto bailout, or the stimulus package. By significant margins, voters do not want to reelect incumbents who voted for these unpopular parts of the Obama agenda.

The Midwest’s economy is suffering and people are out of work. Jobs is the main topic of most Congressional debates in the region. Midwest voters are likely to make significant changes in who represents them in Congress. Whether those changes will help the struggling economy recover and foster job creation in the region remains to be seen.

But one thing is for sure: the Democrats have a Midwestern sized problem.

The Des Moines Register published an excellent letter to the editor on November 25. Kudos to the author.

Small fringe makes Republicans look bad

There is no mystery why candidates with an (R) behind their name lost in 2006 and 2008. They defended the indefensible for years, and it made voters mad. Only people in denial say George Bush was unfairly treated, and that Democrats and the media should hound Barack Obama with the same vitriolic intensity. They need to take a little trip down memory lane.

Bush enjoyed a 90 percent approval rating in October 2001, and we had the entire world on our side. It is ridiculous to blame anyone else but him and his top advisers for securing his place among the worst presidents in history.

His actions and inactions resulted in tragedy after scandal after disaster. The Bush-Cheney team has left our country morally, ethically, diplomatically, militarily and financially bankrupt.

Sarah Palin points to a Republican administration’s “blunders with war strategy” and “trillion-dollar debt” for losing the election. Ron Paul has hinted John McCain might have won if he’d held up Bush as the example of what can go wrong with an inexperienced person in the White House.

It is the last 25 percent of Americans refusing to admit how bad the Bush-Cheney years were who make all Republicans look like the lunatic fringe.

- T.J. Facto
Des Moines

Iowa RLC Coordinator Roger Barr with Ron Paul

In addition to the recent RLC booth at the Nebraska GOP Convention, there were also RLC booths at Conventions in Iowa and Texas.

Roger W. Barr, Jr., Iowa Republican Liberty Caucus Contact, set up a table at the Iowa State Republican convention under the banner of the RLC, IowansforLiberty.org, and Ron Paul’s Campaign for Liberty. Roger and company handed out hundreds of RLC pamplets and gave away 200 copies of Ron Paul’s new book “The Revolution: A Manifesto.”

According to Roger, “We where very well recieved at the convention. I along with seven other Ron Paul Repulicans were elected to the National Convention as delegates — 7 Alternates and 1 Delegate. The delegate was Drew Ivers, the Ron Paul Iowa campaign manager.” According to a report at NolanChart.com, “One man behind the table called the interest in RLC ‘somewhere between gratifying and excellent’.”

Roger continued, “A long story short: The John McCain people tried to strong arm the social conservatives and kick out the libertarian-leaning Republicans. Thus, the Campaign for Liberty and the RLC created a coalition and shut them out. The John McCain state coordinator ran for a Delegate position and did not become a delegate. It was a great day.”

Thanks, Roger, for your great efforts!

In Texas, The Dallas Morning News reported that the Republican Liberty Caucus of Texas had a booth at the state GOP Convention in June. “It’s really kind of a rallying and recruiting point,” said Don Zimmerman, an Austin area Republican who led a group that supported Paul’s presidential run but wasn’t directly affiliated with his campaign.

The article continued, “Zimmerman, who describes himself as a “Barry Goldwater Republican” and has attended GOP state conventions for more than a decade, said the struggle between Paul supporters and other delegates at the Houston convention will be typical of minority-majority clashes that have occurred repeatedly at past Texas conventions.”

Thanks to Don Zimmerman and company for their efforts at the Texas GOP Convention.

There’s a lot going on in RLC-land. Some updates from the states:

Arizona: Roy Miller of Phoenix has replaced Bennett Kopp as the new Arizona RLC State Chair. Roy can be reached via e-mail.

Arkansas: Jim Martin of Eureka Springs is the new RLC State Contact. Jim can be reached via e-mail.

Illinois: The state RLC has established a new website at http://www.rlcil.org. The new state Co-Contacts are W. Guy Finley in Round Lake and Robert M.W. Stanford in Normal. Guy and Robert can be reached via e-mail.

Iowa: Roger Barr of Boone has been appointed the new RLC State Contact. Roger can be reached via e-mail.

Louisiana: Aaron Andrus was appointed the RLC state contact in March. Aaron and his wife Jill have four children, ages 8 years to 4 months old, and reside in Lake Charles. Aaron graduated with a BS in Finance from McNeese State University and a Masters in Pastoral Studies from Loyola University New Orleans (2006). He is the Assistant Operations Manager for Seabulk Towing Services, Inc and has been a registered Republican since 1996. We are excited to have Aaron on board. He can be reached via e-mail.

Nevada: RLC National Board member Daniel Rego has moved to Las Vegas and is the new RLC State Co-Contact in the state. Dan can be reached via e-mail.

North Carolina: RLC National Treasurer Jeff Palmer reports: “Spearheaded by the Triangle-Area (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) RLC Meetup group, which held its largest organizational meeting to date on March 20, the North Carolina RLC approved bylaws, elected an interim Board, heard from our local congressional candidate (who’s now a Board member), and increased its paid membership by more than 50%. A RLCNC rechartering application will be submitted to national shortly. New members came all the way from Wilmington where the Cape Fear Republican Liberty Caucus was founded and promises to absorb the 150+ member Wilmington-Area Ron Paul Meetup group. Seeds have also been planted for local RLC groups in Charlotte, Asheville, and the Triad (Winston-Salem/Greensboro/High Point). Interestingly, three of our new members — including one of our most promising — were libertarian Republicans who just happened to being playing pool in the room where we were about to have our meeting. When it rains, it pours! North Carolina has a delegate selection process separate from and parallel to our upcoming presidential primary and, as the state’s Ron Paul movement has switched gears to the GOP ‘inside-baseball’ that the delegate selection process entails, the RLC here has enhanced its reputation as the putative expert on the process and on working within the GOP.”

Pennsylvania: Shawn McArdle of Erie has been appointed the new RLC State Contact. Shawn can be reached via e-mail.

Tennessee: The state RLC has a new contact, Dr. Joe Dumas of Signal Mountain in Hamilton County. Dr. Dumas is a Professor of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. He is a volunteer for Bachman Community Center and Mountain Arts Community Center. He is a rated chess player and is the Senior Tournament Director of the U.S. Chess Federation. The RLC is thankful to have Joe as our state contact. He can be reached via e-mail.

Dr. Joe Dumas

Virginia: A statewide Republican Liberty Caucus chapter meeting is taking place at 3:30 pm on Saturday, March 22 at the Snow Memorial Library in Spotsylvania (north of Richmond and south of Fredericksburg). The featured speaker with be State Senator Ken Cuccinelli, one of the few libertarian-leaning Republicans in the state legislature.

Utah: A statewide Republican Liberty Caucus chapter meeting is taking place at 2:30 pm on Saturday, March 22 at the Sandy Library in Sandy. This is the first official organizing meeting for the RLC in Utah. The state RLC contact is Lowell Nelson, who can be reached via e-mail.

Wisconsin: The state RLC has a new contact, David Baumgardner of La Farge in Vernon County. David is an Eagle Scout who is currently completing his goal of obtaining a Law Degree. He is involved with Boy Scouts of America, the Vernon County Republican Party, GOPAC, the NRA, the Midwest Renewable Energy Association, and the Federalist Society. We welcome David’s enthusiasm to the RLC and look forward to a Wisconsin chapter. David can be reached via e-mail.

David P. Baumgardner

Wyoming: The state RLC has established a new website at http://www.wyrlc.org.