President Obama counted on Midwestern states to deliver his 2008 Presidential victory. His popularity in the Midwest was high, having won by large margins in states like Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Clearly Midwest voters were interested in change and a new direction for the country.

But with less than two weeks until the 2010 mid-term elections, the Midwest has become the President’s biggest problem area.

The President’s party is poised to lose at least four Senate races in the Midwest (IN, MO, ND, OH) while two others remain tight contests in which the GOP candidate has been consistently leading (IL, WI). Of the four open Midwest gubernatorial contests, the GOP is posting solid results in three of them (IL, OH, WI) with another, Minnesota, still up for grabs.

Looking at swing Congressional races is where you really get an idea of the Democrats’ Midwestern problem. States that rarely have competitive races like Minnesota and Missouri each have several vulnerable incumbents in 2010. Missouri Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Ike Skelton, who has represented central-west Missouri for more than 30 years, is facing perhaps his toughest challenge yet. A similar situation is facing U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar, who represents northeast Minnesota. Oberstar has been in Congress consistently for nearly 40 years and is in the race of his life. Tim Walz, a second term Democrat from a southern Minnesota swing district, is facing a tough reelection battle as well.

Wisconsin — which is thought to be liberal but is more accurately categorized as a swing state — currently has only three Republicans in its eight member Congressional delegation but may have just two Democrats in its delegation by January, 2011. Vulnerable incumbents there include Reps. Steve Kagen (D) in the northeastern part of the state and Ron Kind (D) in the west.

Illinois and Ohio have between five and six seats each that are extremely competitive House races while four Michigan and three Iowa and Wisconsin seats are up in the air.

Illinois’ western-most district, represented by second term Congressman Phil Hare, was a seat pundits never thought would be in play. But the rural, gerrymandered district is now a national target of Republicans, who have an excellent candidate in businessman Bobby Schilling. Mark Kirk’s vacated seat in the moderate northern Chicago burbs is also up for grabs and is really the Democrat’s only pickup opportunity in the Midwest this cycle. Reps. Melissa Bean (D) in the western Chicago suburbs, Bill Foster (D) in the southern Chicago suburbs, and Debbie Halvorson (D) in central Illinois are also in tough reelection battles. Halvorson, who doesn’t shy away from any of her votes or support of the Obama agenda, has been down as far as eighteen points in recent surveys.

In Iowa, all three of the incumbent Democrat Congressmen, Reps. Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack, and Leonard Boswell could lose. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly (D) and Baron Hill (D) are facing tough challenges and Brad Ellsworth’s open seat in southern Indiana is poised for a Republican pickup.

The upper Midwest is heavily in play, too. Bart Stupak’s open Michigan upper Peninsula seat is leaning Republican, as are the two northern Wisconsin seats held by the retiring Rep. David Obey (D) and second term Democrat Steve Kagen.

The Democrats are losing rural voters who are deeply concerned about the economy and didn’t see any added benefits after the stimulus and Obamacare.

Voters in rural Ohio districts like the eastern-most districts of Reps. Zack Space (D) and Charlie Wilson (D) may be poised to boot out the incumbents. The same is true of swing districts in Ohio like that of northeast Ohio’s John Boccieri  and central Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy, first-term Democrats who rubber-stamped the entire Obama agenda. Suburban districts represented by Steve Driehaus (D) and Betty Sutton (D), which are centered around Akron and Cincinatti, are also in play.

Both the North and South Dakota At Large seats are up for grabs for the first time in many years, too. All told, the entire region is in play — from Skelton’s seat in central Missouri to Wilson’s seat in eastern Ohio and from Kagen’s seat in northeast Wisconsin all the way westward to the Dakotas.

A recent Rasmussen poll showed that voters are angry with Members of Congress who voted for Obamacare, the auto bailout, or the stimulus package. By significant margins, voters do not want to reelect incumbents who voted for these unpopular parts of the Obama agenda.

The Midwest’s economy is suffering and people are out of work. Jobs is the main topic of most Congressional debates in the region. Midwest voters are likely to make significant changes in who represents them in Congress. Whether those changes will help the struggling economy recover and foster job creation in the region remains to be seen.

But one thing is for sure: the Democrats have a Midwestern sized problem.

In South Dakota, only one step remains for the “Cease and Desist” resolution (HCR 1013) to pass: the Governor must sign the resolution. That’s because the South Dakota Senate passed the resolution, 20-14. Only one Democrat (Ryan Maher) voted for the resolution. Republican Sens. Jim Bradford and Tom Dempster voted with the Democrats against the resolution.

In South Carolina, the House has passed its sovereignty bill, H. 3509, and it is currently in the Senate Judiciary Committee, where it is likely to be recommended favorably.

Sen. Shane Martin (R, District 13) will be attending a meeting of activists in Greenville to give an update to supporters of the measure.

Earlier in the month, the Oklahoma Senate passed that state’s resolution, SJR 10, by a vote of 25-17.

The Mercatus Center recently released a study (pdf) by William P. Ruger and Jason Sorens on “Freedom in the 50 States,” which measures economic and social liberty in all fifty states.

According to the authors, the “study improves on prior attempts to score economic freedom for American states in three primary ways: (1) it includes measures of social and personal freedoms such as peaceable citizens’ rights to educate their own children, own and carry firearms, and be free from unreasonable search and seizure; (2) it includes far more variables, even on economic policies alone, than prior studies, and there are no missing data on any variable; and (3) it uses new, more accurate measurements of key variables, particularly state fiscal policies.”

The results:

“We find that the freest states in the country are New Hampshire, Colorado, and South Dakota, which together achieve a virtual tie for first place. All three states feature low taxes and government spending and middling levels of regulation and paternalism. New York is the least free by a considerable margin, followed by New Jersey, Rhode Island, California, and Maryland.”

On personal freedom alone, Alaska is the clear winner, followed by Maine, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Texas. Maryland, Illinois, and New York are at the rear. On economic freedom alone, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Colorado are the freest, while New York, Maine, and California are the least free.

“As for freedom in the different regions of the country, the Mountain and West North Central regions are the freest overall while the Middle Atlantic lags far behind on both economic and personal freedom. Regression analysis demonstrates that states enjoying more economic and personal freedom tend to attract substantially higher rates of internal net migration.”

This is one of the best studies I’ve encountered. I encourage you to review your own states’ profile in the study.

Of course, the Republican Liberty Caucus ranks legislators on its Liberty Index, but this comprehensive study by Profs. Ruger and Sorens will be most useful to grassroots activists interested in continuing to work toward our libertarian ideal.

“It’s gratifying to see term limits continue to spread across the country a city and county at a time,” said Philip Blumel, RLC activist and president of U.S. Term Limits, a Virginia-based advocacy group. “And also that another state affirmed their existing term limits in South Dakota, where over 75% of voters voted to retain term limits on the state legislature.”

“Yes, there is a backlash against term limits in New York and elsewhere,” said Blumel. “But only among politicians and lobbyists. The voters continue to reaffirm their support for limiting political power whenever they get the chance.”

South Dakota (J) – repeals term limits on state legislature.

YES: 87,361 (24.27%)

NO: 272,551 (75.73%) TERM LIMITS WIN!

Memphis, TN (1) – Places a maximum of two terms on the city council, mayor and other constitutional offices.

YES: 177,571 (78.23%) TERM LIMITS WIN!

NO: 49,420 (21.77%)

Shelby County, TN (365) – Places term limits on various city charter offices to match limits on county commission and mayor

YES: 273,107 (78.59%) TERM LIMITS WIN!

NO: 74,409 (21.41%)

San Antonio, TX (1) – Extends term limits for city council

YES: 190,417 (51.6%) TERM LIMITS EXTENDED FROM 4 TO 8 YEARS

NO: 178,611 (48.4%)

Tracy, CA (T) – Places a 2 four-year term limit on the city council and mayor

YES: 12,613 (67.21%) TERM LIMITS WIN!

NO: 6,154 (32.79%)

What’s next for term limits? With Congressional approval ratings at historic lows of about 10%, the focus is turning on Congress. To sign a petition for Congressional term limits, please see www.termlimits.org.