GOP eyes McDonnell strategy: But it’s missing something!
By Aaron - November 24, 2009 at 9:01 AM
Filed under GOP Party , News , Special Interest , States , Virginia
Filed under GOP Party , News , Special Interest , States , Virginia
by Aaron Biterman
I live in Virginia and followed the race of Governor-elect Bob McDonnell fairly closely. An article in Politico last week explains that some Republican Party strategists now believe that they have a winning strategy for 2010.
They’re calling it the McDonnell strategy.
Politico’s Jonathan Martin describes the strategy: “[R]un on economic policy, downplay divisive cultural issues, present an upbeat tone, target independent voters and focus on Democratic-controlled Washington — all without attacking President Barack Obama personally.”
McDonnell is a far-right social conservative, so it only made sense for him to downplay his religious and social views — which (I believe) are far outside of the mainstream. (Although his views probably coincide with many Virginians.)
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to develop a strategy for McDonnell that courts the largest base of the electorate (Independent voters) or, as I said, to downplay his true views on social issues.
Those were obviously successful points in the strategy developed by the McDonnell team. Another positive point was that Bob McDonnell stayed focused on the issues: transportation, jobs, and budget, mostly. As Haley Barbour has said, these issues are the issues that Virginians were talking about around the kitchen table.
But, despite victory for McDonnell in Virginia, there’s one base of supporters — and one strategic point — that the McDonnell campaign missed the boat on: Independents and Republicans that have a decisive libertarian streak.
There is an entire base of voters that are tired of politics-as-usual and will only support candidates that will roll back the nation’s deficit — which means voting for no more spending and voting to cut ineffective government programs.
It’s somewhat obvious why McDonnell did not court these voters: Virginia doesn’t have that many of them.
Case in point, Dr. Ron Paul received just five percent of the vote in Virginia’s 2008 Presidential primary, taking around 22,000 votes. Contrast that total with the second-place finisher, Mike Huckabee, who took 41 percent, or nearly 200,000 votes.
Huckabee, of course, has moderate views on economics, but is socially conservative. Bob McDonnell is much more of a Huckabee populist than a Ron Paul constitutionalist.
If the Republican Party is going to develop a national strategy to succeed in elections, its candidates should elevate discourse by discussing real political issues — “back to basics” fundamentals that fall under the rubric of constitutionally limited government, individual liberty, free-market economics, and the rule of law.
Candidates that combine these core issues with local concerns (jobs, economy, and even more local issues that vary by state or district) will be more likely to succeed than candidates that follow the populist approach of Bob McDonnell.
The main flaw with the McDonnell strategy is that it appears McDonnell has no principles whatsoever. So, while he did win an election in a state that had been trending Democrat, Virginians now have a Governor-elect that never outlined his core philosophy of governance.
At a time when most states are facing budget shortages, the unemployment rate continues to climb, and the dollar continues to erode in value, Republican Party candidates that want to win must tell the truth to voters. Hopefully that truth is their commitment to vote against more spending and to cut waste and redundancy from government.
In the 2006 and 2008 elections, Republicans that were not shy about their belief in limited government were overwhelmingly successful at the polls.
This is evidenced by Ron Paul’s strong showing in state primaries as well as elections in which Tom McClintock (R-CA), Peter Roskam (R-IL), and Paul Broun (R-GA) won races in notable Congressional upsets — in the Midwest, the South, and the Left Coast.
Will the Republican Party adopt Bob McDonnell’s flawed election model in other states? If it does, Republicans may not succeed.
The best strategy for the Republican Party is to look back to Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater for the healthy dose of skepticism about government’s ability to solve societal problems that once defined the Republican Party — and still defines its core base.
Republican candidates with this philosophy — that government cannot solve all ills in society, nor should it — who have financial support will succeed in 2010.
On November 24th, 2009 at 9:24 am
GOP establishment people like McDonnell because they feel his success supports their strategy from the past few years. They feel that “well it wasn’t McCain’s fault, the economy was bad.” Most americans distrust the Republicans on the issue in which they should be the undisputed masters – the economy. In becoming like the democrats, they forfeited that position, and someone like Obama was able to toy with his rhetoric to sound fiscally conservative and capitalize on the failure of the Republican party in that area.
On November 24th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Unless I read you wrong, there seems to be more profit in courting the Huckabee voters than the Ron Paul voters, which is a very unfortunate sign for the party, because the things which appeal to Huckabee conservatives will drive away independents who might find a more libertarian message appealing.
Dave
On November 24th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Interesting article, Aaron. And some good points.
I agree that if Republicans want to win, we have to change our strategy. I like the “Fiscally Conservative, Socially Tolerant and for a Strong Defense” motto I’ve seen. We simply have to stop trying to force what we consider moral behavior down everyone’s throat. We have to stop believing that the FedGov is the answer to everything and get back to letting the States decide a lot of these issues. And as you say, we must return to lower spending and smaller government – our core principles.
Lately, there has been very little difference at the national level between R’s and D’s – both parties think they are the answer to everything and both are increasing government intrusion into our lives along with spending like drunken sailors!
We have the reputation of being the Party of NO. This is most likely deserved – at the national level. We just vote against things and don’t propose alternative solutions – at least not in a timely manner. That has to change!
We have to continue to be the Party of NO. No more big spending increases. NO more intrusion in our privacy and erosion of our freedoms and liberty. NO more increasing the deficit. NO more unaffordable entitlement programs. And the list goes on… and on.
Mike Miller
Representative, Montana HD84
On November 24th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
The GOP has been stunned into a sense of denial by the 08 election. They deny the rejection of their status quo position’s. The hope seems to be that the left will screw up enough that the GOP will once again have their turn.For the country, this is a fatally flawed delusion.
I agree with Aaron, the GOP needs a back to basics approach that most Americans can line up and agree with. Stripped down to it’s bare essence the statement “An Individual has a Right to their Life,Liberty and Property” is that approach.
Their is nothing in that statement an avowed socialist can agree with yet most American’s would.We can find our guidance in the age of enlightenment and the principals of our nation’s founders.
For the ignorant masses the slogan “It’s the constitution stupid” may suffice.
Trying to outbid the Dems for the hearts and minds of the Gimme generation is a path to certian destruction. We must convince people their liberty is more important than a government handout.
On November 24th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Time will tell whether McDonnell sticks by his fiscal conservative rhetoric and doesn’t fall into the business as usual category. I do not think his being a “far right” religious conservative necessarily means he cannot act in a libertarian fashion by working to cut the deficit/spending/programs/ect.
Even establishment Republicans recognize the wave of anti-big-government sentiment across the country. You have to give them some credit for saying NO to government controlled healthcare.
In the districts where Republicans can win, I hope the Party recruits and supports good candidates – they don’t have to be perfect – but good candidates who show commitment to the roots of the Party. The time is ripe for the Republicans to take back both houses of Congress.
On November 24th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Yes, but what about the dems. pushing the other moral code down our throuts!
On November 25th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
The McDonnell strategy is sound, but with one glaring flaw; the part that says don’t attack Obama personally.
Why not? There are numerous voters out there that are absolutely disgusted that we’ve elected a Chicago thug as President of the United States. He’s also a guy who has never served a day of his life in the Military – which would be fine if he respected the Military, but he does not.
Additionally, there are serious unanswered questions about his background; his birth certificate, his 1982 trip to Pakistan on an Indonesian passport, and even his un-released college transcripts.
And then there’s Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Father Phlager, Louis Farakhan, Frank Wright, and more recently Van Jones.
Why would voters who are concerned about Obama’s background and lack of personal attributes be fired up about voting for a Republican ticket that treads lightly on all these issues?
We need to attack Obama on policy, sure, but we need to seriously assault him on his personal failings, as well. Just like they assaulted George W. Bush for 8 years.