Let’s Stop the Johnson/Paul Infighting, Part I
By Jay Bailey - April 26, 2011 at 2:27 PM
Filed under Elections , Gary Johnson , GOP Party , Opinion , Presidential , Ron Paul
Filed under Elections , Gary Johnson , GOP Party , Opinion , Presidential , Ron Paul
On April 21st, from the shadows of the New Hampshire state capitol building, as well as the national political scene, Gary Johnson announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination for President in 2012. Just four days later, it became known that Ron Paul was forming an exploratory committee, a first step in a process that almost certainly will end in an official presidential run. This back-and-forth is in many ways emblematic of the growing divide between supporters of Johnson and Paul.
Many of us saw this coming. There is this underlying perception that the liberty movement ain’t big enough for the both of ‘em. Each side is concerned that the other candidate will hurt their candidate’s chances to win the GOP nomination. I believe it is from this that all other debates stem. Don’t get me wrong; each side has raised legitimate points, but fear of the harm the “other” candidate will do is what is making the disagreements personal. I want to address the concerns in hopes that I can help quell the personal and divisive nature of Johnson v. Paul 2012.
It is somewhat true that the presence of multiple libertarian candidates will to a certain extent split the vote. The Paul supporters will claim that Johnson is stealing former and potential Paul supporters. While it is true that this has and will occur, Johnson supporters can just as easily make the claim that Paul will be stealing potential Johnson supporters because Johnson was the first to announce his candidacy. Come to think of it, Ron Paul has yet to announce he is running for president. This is nothing more than jejune bickering, and it needs to stop.
Though there is a semblance of truth to it, the vote-splitting concern is a little overblown. Each candidate that enters the race is going to siphon votes from the most ideologically similar candidates. This is the nature of primaries, and as each candidate drops out of the race, most of the votes that had gone to him or her will be divided among the remaining candidates. If at some point Johnson or Paul decides to drop out of the race, I believe it is almost a certainty that one will endorse the other; that will give the remaining candidate an observable boost, which will at least promote the perception of momentum. If neither candidate drops out of the race, the result would be two prominent libertarian voices in the Republican race.
And isn’t that what all of this is about? Ron Paul’s 2008 race has been an immeasurable boon to the liberty movement. If we are to look seriously at that run, though, it was never about winning. Dr. Paul has made it clear he has little if any desire to actually become president. If he does officially run for president in 2012, it will be a reluctant response to public pressure. Ron Paul ran as a message candidate in 2008, and he’s going to be doing the same thing in 2012. The RealClearPolitics aggregate poll has Paul polling at 6% right now. While I would not suggest it is impossible for Ron Paul to win in 2012, starting out with that low of a number does not bode well for victory.
Gary Johnson will be doing the same thing in 2012. This election cycle will be for Gary Johnson what 2008 was for Ron Paul. This effect would be greater if Paul ultimately decided not to run, but in either case Gary Johnson is not going to win in 2012. For Johnson, this is more about 2016 than it is about 2012. Given the political reality that neither is going to win, there should be no reason to attack either one of them for ruining the cause or whatever other ridiculous allegations are being said. When you are a message candidate, you want your message to be as loud as possible, and two voices are louder than one.
Both Johnson and Paul supporters should welcome the other candidate because of this. Paul supporters should think back to the 2008 debates (well, the ones in which Ron Paul was actually allowed to participate). Do you remember the ostracism and general disrespect with which Dr. Paul was treated? He was cast aside as a lone kook rambling on about the Fed and other crazy things. That’s an easy thing to do when only one candidate is speaking the words that are being dismissed as looney. If you add another candidate to the mix saying the same thing, it adds credibility to the message of both. In a sense, Johnson and Paul need each other to be taken seriously.
It is my sincere hope that these reasons will lessen the infighting that so often plagues the liberty movement. In Part II of this article, I will go over the actual policy differences that are often the subject of ridicule from the opposing camp. As I will show, although each side will focus on the differences, even where Johnson and Paul differ, they aren’t that different.
So let us put this behind us. I thought this was a revolution. I’ve been seeing much more hate than love recently.
This is not the Ron Paul movement. It is not the Gary Johnson movement. This is the libertarian movement, and the more soldiers for liberty we have the more successful our fight will be.
On April 26th, 2011 at 11:46 pm
I see you forgot to mention that many of libertarian Republicans are supporting Donald Trump. It’s not just a battle between Paul and Johnson for the libertarian wing’s heart.
Paul has some serious issues on foreign policy. He was on Hannity last night and he still refused to acknowledge the threat of Islamo-Fascism. Three times Hannity asked him point blank, do you think Radical Islam is a threat to the United States. Three times he dodged, weaved, hemmed and hawed. It was a pathetic performance.
Johnson is much better on foreign policy. He still sides with the non-internventionists, but he’s not a pacifist like Paul. He acknowledges that Radical Islam is a threat.
Of course, Trump is by far the best on the issue.
If Trump falters, Johnson is an acceptable fall-back for a pro-national security libertarian. Ron Paul absolutely is not.
On April 27th, 2011 at 12:30 am
Eric, you are missing the point. The threat of Islamo-Fascism is about as serious a concern as an ingrown toenail compared to the diagnosis of terminal cancer, which is the national debt. Do you have an opinion about the Federal Reserve, and if so, do you understand the concept of moving deck chairs on the Titanic?
On April 27th, 2011 at 1:31 am
Eric, I realize you are biased, but I think you are missing the point of the blog here.
-Matt Collins
RLCTN Vice Chair
On April 27th, 2011 at 1:44 am
I’ve seen some hateful comments come from some of the GJ people too and it’s just as unnecessary as the RP people who do the same thing. The liberty movement does not need a civil war, it weakens the cause.
GJ and RP can coexist, at least for the time being, and strengthen the movement. Their candidacies are not mutually exclusive at present. I think however that the high tide will raise all boats and two voices for freedom means we are rebranding the GOP back to where it should be.
I am happy to have multiple liberty candidates on stage at the debates, we have come a long way!
(although to be completely honest I think this article is inaccurate when it says that RP cannot win).
-Matt Collins
RLCTN Vice Chair
On April 27th, 2011 at 1:54 am
This is why we need Range Voting. When having more good choices reduces your chance of getting what you want, the voting system is defective.
On April 27th, 2011 at 1:57 am
DaWizard, you’re right– the main issue is economics and I don’t trust Trump in that area at all… I’d sooner vote for Romney. And I must say, this is the first time I’ve heard of any libertarian support for Trump.
On Johnson v. Paul– it doesn’t matter who wins the 5-15% of true believers. Neither one of them will win unless they can make inroads with the broader voting public.
On April 27th, 2011 at 3:11 am
If there’s anything libertarians are good at, it’s cutting their own throats.
On April 27th, 2011 at 6:18 am
Eric. While Trump may be stronger on national security I don’t see any redeeming characteristics which make him vaguely libertarian in any other areas. He’s a Democrat ferchirssakes.
On April 27th, 2011 at 7:42 am
Eric Dondero and Donald Trump — what a team!
On April 27th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Nice to see you visiting the RLC blog, Justin. Maybe you can explain Eric’s convoluted reasoning on Trump.
On April 27th, 2011 at 9:10 pm
I sincerely hope I’m proven wrong about that, Matt. I just don’t see it at this point. If, however, Dr. Paul is in the top two or three by the time the primaries start, I think Johnson bows out (or vice versa).
On April 27th, 2011 at 11:15 pm
My impression is that Johnson is going to focus entirely on the New Hampshire primary. A win there can make him a “serious” candidate overnight. Johnson won’t be in the early debates, because he doesn’t have national name recognition, which Paul certainly does … gaining him a media slot to make his case. Like last time, all Paul needs is an attack on him by another pseudo-candidate (like Trump). The Donald is just a circus clown: he has no position on anything beyond his own inflated ego. With the “birther” embarassment and no *official evidence* that he even has a million dollars, he’s history.
On April 28th, 2011 at 6:10 am
Focusing on New Hampshire would have been my advice to Johnson. That and the SC debate next week. I think he has to try to get into that first televised debate. Iowa is not good territory for him and NH is much more friendly.
But I’ll make a call right now. After the May 5th debate Herman Cain will be the frontrunner.
On May 1st, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Trump? Perhaps those who insist Rudy Guiliani is a libertarian support him. I can think of exacly one of those.
On May 1st, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Trump? Perhaps those who insist Rudy Guiliani is a libertarian support him. I can think of exacly one of those.
On May 1st, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Ron Paul is 2nd in the polls in Iowa to Huckabee and 2nd to Romney in NH at this time. But Huckabee is in 4th place in NH and Romney is in 4th place in Iowa.
To suggest that Paul can’t win is idiotic.
On May 1st, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Ron Paul is 2nd in the polls in Iowa to Huckabee and 2nd to Romney in NH at this time. But Huckabee is in 4th place in NH and Romney is in 4th place in Iowa.
To suggest that Paul can’t win is idiotic.
On May 1st, 2011 at 9:13 pm
Ron Paul can win. He won in NV. Spontaneous organization and excited individuals are better than any other fuel source.
Liberty, the fuel source of humanity.
On May 1st, 2011 at 9:13 pm
Ron Paul can win. He won in NV. Spontaneous organization and excited individuals are better than any other fuel source.
Liberty, the fuel source of humanity.
On May 1st, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Eric Dondero (see his posts and resulting comments below) is a former Ron Paul staffer who was fired by the congressman and is now considered an anti Ron Paul troll.
See his profile here:
http://reason.wikia.com/wiki/Eric_Dondero
Please do not feed the Donderoooooo
On May 1st, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Eric Dondero (see his posts and resulting comments below) is a former Ron Paul staffer who was fired by the congressman and is now considered an anti Ron Paul troll.
See his profile here:
http://reason.wikia.com/wiki/Eric_Dondero
Please do not feed the Donderoooooo
On May 2nd, 2011 at 5:28 am
Ron Paul definitely has a chance at winning. Romney is the closest thing to a frontrunner, and it even seems like a long shot for him to win. Even he doesn’t have a clear path to victory. No one person has a great chance at this point. Think about who would be guaranteed to be in the top 5 in both Iowa and NH. Of those that are obviously running (leaving out Trump, Palin, Huckabee, and Bachman since I don’t consider them as 100% certain of running), Romney and Ron Paul may be the only ones basically guaranteed to be in the top 5 of both. Pawlenty, and maybe Gingrich, will probably be in the top 5 of both, but I don’t even think that is as certain as Ron in the top 5 of both. Ron definitely has a better chance than many of the other candidates. His campaign will be much different this time because he will be able to raise a lot of money a lot earlier this time and that is HUGE! He’ll actually have the time necessary to build real organizations in Iowa and NH. And we need to remember that in 2008, the true believers weren’t really big enough to get past 10%. But they have grown, so if they are big enough to be 10-15% of the vote, than that may be all he needs to catapult much higher. The field will likely be so crowed that 10-15% could get in the top three. And once you’re in the top three, you can start to pick up more of the wishy washy crowd that will only consider the “top tier” candidates. And once some others start dropping out of the race, many more will be drawn to Ron. If Ron can get in the top two of the Iowa straw poll…watch out.
On May 2nd, 2011 at 5:28 am
Ron Paul definitely has a chance at winning. Romney is the closest thing to a frontrunner, and it even seems like a long shot for him to win. Even he doesn’t have a clear path to victory. No one person has a great chance at this point. Think about who would be guaranteed to be in the top 5 in both Iowa and NH. Of those that are obviously running (leaving out Trump, Palin, Huckabee, and Bachman since I don’t consider them as 100% certain of running), Romney and Ron Paul may be the only ones basically guaranteed to be in the top 5 of both. Pawlenty, and maybe Gingrich, will probably be in the top 5 of both, but I don’t even think that is as certain as Ron in the top 5 of both. Ron definitely has a better chance than many of the other candidates. His campaign will be much different this time because he will be able to raise a lot of money a lot earlier this time and that is HUGE! He’ll actually have the time necessary to build real organizations in Iowa and NH. And we need to remember that in 2008, the true believers weren’t really big enough to get past 10%. But they have grown, so if they are big enough to be 10-15% of the vote, than that may be all he needs to catapult much higher. The field will likely be so crowed that 10-15% could get in the top three. And once you’re in the top three, you can start to pick up more of the wishy washy crowd that will only consider the “top tier” candidates. And once some others start dropping out of the race, many more will be drawn to Ron. If Ron can get in the top two of the Iowa straw poll…watch out.
On May 5th, 2011 at 1:58 am
No one we might support has a chance of winning if we can’t sink the current frontrunners. Romney, Huckabee and Trump need to be stopped dead. I hope they’ll lose a lot of ground because of tomorrow’s debate – I believe none of them are taking part. But they need to be discredited and destroyed because if they are still in the race in a couple of months liberty and this nation are in trouble.
On May 5th, 2011 at 1:58 am
No one we might support has a chance of winning if we can’t sink the current frontrunners. Romney, Huckabee and Trump need to be stopped dead. I hope they’ll lose a lot of ground because of tomorrow’s debate – I believe none of them are taking part. But they need to be discredited and destroyed because if they are still in the race in a couple of months liberty and this nation are in trouble.