This is only the third time I have written about Adam Kokesh since his campaign began. The first time — nearly one year ago — I provided an analysis of what I believed would occur in the race. The second time I wrote about the race was to defend Kokesh against some pro-war Republicans who were ripping him to pieces.
The results are not yet complete, but with over 60% of the vote, Kokesh has a little more than 27% of the votes. You can see what the end result will be from these totals.
Let me explain why Adam Kokesh lost his race:
1) Wrong district
2) Poor strategy
3) Unpopular message
First, Kokesh absolutely picked the wrong district to run in. I could have told him that a year ago. (Look above, I did!) I’m told other folks also explained this fact to Kokesh but he (the candidate) was set on running in New Mexico’s Third District. My original analysis of the race explains why the district was not ripe for a Kokesh victory — either in the primary or the general election.
The strategy of the Kokesh campaign was a losing one. The idea was to woo left-leaning Democrats and Independents into the Kokesh camp. The strategy resulted in an unimpressive less than 20% showing at the New Mexico Republican Convention for Kokesh and led us to watch the votes pour in for Tom Mullins this evening.
The strategy of any Republican campaign seeking victory in the primary must be to turn Republican voters on to your message and sell your ideas to the people voting on the election ballot. Kokesh’s focus should have been on his Republican primary. One idea that would have helped him was to simply gather his Republican supporters together and form a New Mexico chapter of the Republican Liberty. This strategy would have lent Kokesh some Republican credentials and would have formed a caucus around his campaign.
New Mexico 3 is not the right place to sell liberty. A libertarian message is not going to sell in a district that supports government handouts. And a libertarian message is not going to sell when the Republicans voting in the primary fail to be convinced that you’re a Republican or that you have any affinity for the principles of the Republican Party.
The voters made their choice in New Mexico’s Third District.
The New Mexico 3 experiment really underscores the value of time, effort, and resources. Unfortunately, all of these — including over $225,000 of hard-earned donor money which could have been spent on winnable races — were wasted.
Let’s learn something from this endeavor and do something different next time — by not squandering precious resources on unwinnable races.
On June 1st, 2010 at 9:30 pm
if adam kokesh runs again, same primary,
same district, and gets 52% of the vote,
then what? if he fdoes more of an outreach…
On June 1st, 2010 at 9:36 pm
I don’t feel my money was wasted at all. We are in this for the long haul. For us, it’s not just about grabbing power back from the democratic party. What was learned during this campaign will set the stage for success in 2012. What the people of NM-3 learn durning the general and the next two years will also set the stage for success in 2012.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 4:33 am
Good article except for that bit about wasting my money. It is my money, and I am the sole judge about whether the expenditure was justified.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 5:07 am
BJ Lawson lost the first time as well, but look at him now. I’m sure as hard as Adam worked, the liberty message was spread far and wide and it caused a large group of people to think about things that they never would have if Adam didn’t get this exposure. Money well spent. Education is never a waste of money and the only chance this country has is a well educated electorate.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 7:21 am
Linda, I’m glad you don’t feel your money was wasted. I think other donors might have a different opinion, though. People thought Kokesh would perform well and they expected a much better result. It was a tremendous waste of the very limited resources our movement has.
Angela, see above point. Your money is definitely your money, but our movement — as a collective — needs to pool limited resources to actually impact public policy changes. The best way to do that is to elect good candidates. New Mexico 3 is among the worst choices for our movement to waste time and money on.
David, I talk about BJ Lawson in my original analysis: http://www.rlc.org/2009/06/18/big-picture-strategy/
Education is a gigantic waste of money in certain circumstances. This is one such instance.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 8:59 am
Say what you want, he still raised a ton of cash!
On June 2nd, 2010 at 9:05 am
N.M-3 is a very large spacious district
and the turnout was like a LARGE town
meeting up in new england. the actual
number of deciding votes is quite small. adam kokesh could easily run again & win!
On June 2nd, 2010 at 9:06 am
You can’t run much of an educational campaign if you don’t get out of the Republican primary, which is required to reach out the voters who traditionally vote Democratic in the general election.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 11:02 am
I never expected him to win, but in my opinion, he did pretty darn well for the first time out of the gate. My belief, is we need to do anything and everything to at least try and get real liberty-minded candidates, like Adam Kokesh elected. I personally donated $150 from across state lines, and got a silver coin in return. But Adam wasn’t the only candidate from other states that I have done this for, and I’m not rich. Just a regular working class stiff that believes in the cause, and from my perspective, its working. Slowly, but its working. The message of liberty is spreading and I am starting to see minor shifts in the Republican Party. Its not the time to be upset about wasted efforts, its time to turn up the heat.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Support a principled candidate with a real chance to win. See http://www.BarreForTexas.com.
This seat was won by a Republican in 2002.
On June 2nd, 2010 at 6:06 pm
“but our movement — as a collective — needs to pool limited resources to actually impact public policy changes.” The problem being that we are not collectivists, so how do we work that out. I know at our REC meeting they talk about how great the Democrats are and they we should function more like them, like all rallying around John McCain so we didn’t waste money on the other loosers. Do you agree?
On June 5th, 2010 at 1:27 am
I have lived in the 3rd Congressional District of NM for nearly 20 years and have watched the political candidates come and go. Aaron gives a very politically astute analysis of the Kokesh race both at the beginning and now.
1) Wrong district – why did Kokesh choose this district? BAD choice. Why would Kokesh choose a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic (and run by the “Mexican Mafia”) and is highly unlikely to change? Surely there are other places in the country that would be more welcoming to his message. We don’t know him – he hasn’t raised a family here or run a business here or volunteered to help community organizations or worked for Republican candidates (usually helps in the primary) – all we know is that he is from liberal Santa Fe and his papa is having legal troubles with defrauding folks of their savings. We are highly religious: Catholic, Mormon, evangelical Christian. Kokesh didn’t appear to be any one of these.
2) Poor strategy – I don’t know what kind of yahoos were running his campaign, but it was not well-run. (And too many of them were very obviously not from our neck of the woods – they knew nothing about New Mexico geography or history or culture, had weird accents, and didn’t even seem to like our state.) He kept losing his volunteers (it doesn’t look good when your own supporters leave your campaign.) And what did he spend his money on? I never saw $225K worth of signs or ads or anything. Did he and his volunteers use the money to live on?
3) Unpopular message – I heard Kokesh speak and debate several times and spoke to him personally as well as with his campaign representatives. I want someone who will represent my values and views. I don’t think Adam Kokesh does. It is as though he was campaigning in an entirely different part of the country but accidentally ended up here. He would start his speeches screaming “Revolution!!!” I’m sorry, for right or for wrong, we aren’t looking for revolution – we want reform. He and his campaign staff did not treat the voters with respect and used rough language (some of us still care about that.) One woman who asked him about his views on a particular topic was frightened by angry Kokesh volunteers on the way to her car after the meeting. Things like this get around town and don’t make a good impression. Oh, and his volunteer who smoked constantly and blew smoke in people’s faces didn’t help.
Maybe we are ignorant so-and-sos but telling us that to our faces isn’t a good strategy. Putting down the opponent and complaining and gossiping and whining about how unfair it all is with anyone in earshot after debates or Republican meetings is plain stupid – you don’t know who is listening. It is also unprofessional and makes him appear to be prideful and arrogant (and thin-skinned – men should “man up” to their responsibilities and face difficulties with grit, not whining.) He doesn’t have a job, tries to talk recruits out of volunteering to serve in the military, and is proud of not paying his taxes – not a really good platform to run on. And his explanation of all the organizations he is associated with and his past statements and actions just wasn’t convincing.
His libertarian views of legalization of drugs and no laws against abortion and opposing traditional definition of marriage and (gasp) opposing war in any way, shape, or form just doesn’t work in this district EXCEPT in Santa Fe where Kokesh is registered to vote. We all think folks from Santa Fe are liberal and wacky and weird – Kokesh seemed to fall into that stereotype. Most of us wondered why on earth he was running as a Republican when he is so obviously a Libertarian. Why scold the Republican voters when we just didn’t really like the guy? His message and passion may be great, but I’m sorry, some of us didn’t find him personally likeable. He is the “young buck” that irritates the heck out of everyone, even when he is right
(my husband was, and is, a “young buck” and irritates a lot of people so I have some sympathy.)
I appreciate his enthusiasm but wish he’d grow up and live some “real life” before he presumes to take on such an important job. (And yes, that is one of my problems with Ben Ray Lujan – he hasn’t grown up yet.)
I actually was at the state convention (able to take a delegate’s place when they couldn’t attend). Has anyone reported the response of the body to the proposed changes to the State Platform brought by the Santa Fe County Republicans (I can only assume it reflected Kokesh’s ideas.) It was defeated by a very loud, resounding “NO!” It isn’t Kokesh himself, it isn’t a “corrupt” Republican machine, it is that Republicans in this part of the state aren’t Libertarian. If Kokesh doesn’t support the state Republican platform, why would we vote for him as the Republican candidate? You all disagree with the NM state Rep. platform – but who are you to come from all over the country to tell us we are stupid and corrupt and dumb to support it? Don’t I have the choice of voting my conscience? I voted against Kokesh at the state convention – not one Republican leader told me how to vote – I just voted for the candidate I thought would be a better Congressman. Maybe we think differently in this state. Isn’t that our right? I don’t appreciate being told by Kokesh (or you all) that I shouldn’t believe what I believe.
So bless his heart, good for Kokesh for participating in the political process, I hope he learned a lot from his campaign. Just have him run in your district if he is so wonderful. Or he could run for a lesser seat and show us how he can make a difference in a less visible position. I was impressed with his election night statement – I wish he had shown that kind of class and thoughtfulness throughout the campaign.
Please don’t cuss at me and tell me I’m stupid or corrupt – this is how I saw things. You read about campaigns on the internet or from one candidate’s viewpoint. Maybe we the voters saw things differently.
On June 9th, 2010 at 11:18 am
Too bad the only way to win a Republican primary is to be warmongering, flag waving dip-shit.
By definition, a “Republican Liberty Caucus” will always be sidelined by the big-money special interests. You will never use the state to limit the state.
On June 9th, 2010 at 11:18 am
The republican party was once a third party.
On June 9th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
“‘but our movement — as a collective — needs to pool limited resources to actually impact public policy changes.’ The problem being that we are not collectivists, so how do we work that out.”
Not being collectivists does not mean we do not cooperate and work together to accomplish a desired result. Collectivism is based on coercion, which none of us are advocating. You can voluntarily work collectively without being a collectivist.
Aaron, great analysis. I hope Kokesh is enlightened by this and runs again – in a better district.
On June 9th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
He’s a great speaker and his principles and ideas mimic mine very well. A pro-life, pro-peace libertarian Republican. I love his enthusiasm. However, it was clear to me he would not win for a few reasons:
#1: He was too aggressive and came off as anti-Republican when he needed Republican support. It also made him seem “anti-American” at times.
#2: I am good friends with many in NM 3rd District although I live in Massachusetts, and I know it is a very Catholic/Mormon district, and they are very neoconservative, particularly the Mormons. The Catholics seem to lean liberal Democrat if they’re not neocons.
#3: The campaign was run too amateurishly – too many college kids running the show who were smart, but lacking in experience. They also had more heart than political skill. Kokesh needed more experianced campaign workers – he needed more professionals, and should have used the college kids as lower level volunteers.
#4: He is too young and seriously lacks a good resume to work off of. He should go find a real job for 10 years, write a book or two, work alongside Campaign for Liberty and the like, and then run again in a different district (which he should move to at least a few years ahead of the time he plans to run)
On June 9th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
The sad and shocking thing was that more money did not pour into the Kokesh campaign from across the country. The winning candidates such as Rand Paul had over $2 million to run their campaign. Adams message is even more principled (Paul’s position on Guantanamo is atrocious for example) and yet he raised less money. Obviously this is because of fame and popularity but Kokesh and the rest of us did the right thing. Live free or die! The expenditure of a little cash is of no consequence when our freedom is on the line. We must be aggressive in every race even if the odds don’t look great. I also agree with other comments that this campaign surely educated people in this district and if this district is so anti-liberty they sorely need this education.
Peace,
Tony
On June 9th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
Ron Paul became a delegate to the Texas Republican convention and a Republican candidate for the United States Congress. In 1974, incumbent Robert R. Casey defeated him in the 22nd district.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul
Ron Paul must have lived in the wrong district and had the wrong message in 1974.
On June 9th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Until those who are part of the Republican Liberty Caucus, and a host of other related groups, forums, newsletters and Tea Party affiliates, come together we will continue to see the same less than desired outcome in many of these elections – primary and otherwise.
Everyone may share about 85-90% of the views expressed by these other organizations, but the leaders continue to push their own agenda and end up with a splintered response that simply does not carry the majority. You have to be willing to work together and stop drawing arbitrary lines in the sand.
Lets try to get them to work together. Interview and select candidates that we can respect. Combine promotional efforts to maximize the outreach and gain recognition. If the end result is valued for its impact on the major parties, then we need to pull together.
Otherwise, they divide and conquer, as they have done with 3rd party efforts for most of my lifetime.
On June 24th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
The right district is the one that you live in. Adam was in the right district. Adam’s religious preference is his business. Religion doesn’t belong in politics and he ran his campaign in a very professional manner. I would like to see Adam get to know his district by either running for a lower office or working on a campaign. I will support Adam if he decides to run again.