Conventional wisdom hinted at high levels of Republican turnout in this year’s nominating contests. Building on relatively light 2008 turnout seemed a lock, and this appeared all the more likely considering the lack of a Democratic primary fight this time around.
Taking into account the electorate’s present angst and 2010’s Tea Party primary successes, most observers would have penciled in massive turnout increases in this year’s Republican primary and caucus states. But with results from seven states in thus far (the state of Missouri does not make for a valid comparison due to 2012’s lack of attached delegates) the picture is shaping up quite differently.
Of the four caucus states to vote so far, Iowa’s 16% rise in turnout was the only increase. Turnout declined by 26% in Nevada, 20% in Minnesota, and 3% in Colorado. When one considers these caucus states disproportionally represent the energized party faithful, moderate to substantial dip in turnout is reason enough to concern Republicans. The raw numbers are more symptomatic of an underlying problem when population inflation is taken into account; the raw numbers show more of a percentage drop when increased population numbers are considered.
Of the three primary states, only South Carolina saw a substantial jump in turnout. It rose 33%–an impressive uptick but huge outlier. Turnout in New Hampshire was essentially flat (up 2%), and Florida turnout was down 16 percentage points when contrasted to 2008. Once again, population gains cause these numbers to understate just how much Republican turnout has fallen.
Taking a look at the states with closed primaries flags an even more deleterious trend for Republicans. All three states that bar independents and members of other political parties from voting in their primaries or caucuses have seen a drop in turnout. In some cases the fall has been substantial.
Florida, Nevada, and Colorado have hosted closed primaries—two of these three states saw a double digit drop in participation. This means registered Republican voters are casting less ballots in an atmosphere where they should hypothetically be chomping at the bit to have their voices heard.
Roughly 155,000 fewer ballots have been cast in 2012 through the same seven contests. Republican operatives and strategists are no doubt aware of this, and some of the blame can certainly be pinned on the toxic campaign atmosphere engendered so far. But such a steep drop in a year when the party’s base was not thought apathetic is worthy of more than a raised eyebrow; the Republican Party has little choice but to confront the reasons behind depressed enthusiasm.
Exit poll data have not shown much, if any, increased minority or under 40 turnout. The electorate is skewing older and almost exclusively Caucasian (the latter being understandable in an Iowa and New Hampshire, but demonstrative of outreach problems in diverse states like South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada.)
Leaving aside the impact of this year’s seesaw polling on the Republican brand, these raw numbers alone show the party’s decreasing appeal. The closed primary states starkly illustrate the passionless support levels being enjoyed by the Republican Party in its current manifestation.
Too many more election cycles of this and Republicans will become a substantial minority party; they must find a way to begin reaching young and minority voters if this fate is to be avoided. The numbers can be twisted and attempts made to explain them away, but in the end they shed light on a situation in need of addressing.
On February 8th, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Hmm… Why the drop? That’s an easy one. The republican party is lead by blindly social conservatives who ensures their campaign coffers are filled by the war monger industry which greatly benefits from the US being a police state!!! We see it and are tired of it, so are not even trying ESPECIALLY when your top runners are yahoos like Romney and Santorum! I wonder how the Libertarian Party’s numbers are doing?
On February 8th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Its the negativity of the campaign and the idea that the establishment is choosing a moderate AGAIN that’s killing the turnout
If you don’t believe your effort will matter, why try?
On February 12th, 2012 at 9:37 am
Dead on! Demographics are killing this party. They may blame it on the candidates currently running, but that’s the point. None of them appeal beyond the old white archetype with the exception of Ron Paul who himself is both old and white. And while Ron Paul at least appeals better to younger voters, his strange bedfellows like Lew Rockwell make it impracticable for him to ever appeal to minorities.
On February 14th, 2012 at 11:59 am
The GOP is not appealing to strong on defense voters. You’re hearing no talk about the threat of Islamism, or fighting back against these barbarians who want to force our wives and girlfriends to wear ugly black burkas. As a result, the whole anti-Islamic Jihad vote is un-enthused in this election cycle. There’s a whole big block of anti-Islamist voters out there who are going to have nobody to vote for in November. Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ticket ought to make an appeal to these voters.
On February 14th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
How would a libertarian possibly appeal to religionists like that… I think you’re greatly mistaken on the whole point of his canidancy. He his very strong on defense but I have a feeling that your definition of defense has nothing to do with defending and a lot more to do with discrimination!